|
"One thing that is not talked about enough is infectious diseases,"
said Palmore, a mathematics
professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the
director of the university's
Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security.
"Of course, the spread of AIDS has been and continues to be a major
concern worldwide," he said, "but an even greater threat, with
regard to international security, may well be avian influenza," or
bird flu, as it's commonly called. And while biologists,
epidemiologists and other scientists are engaged in efforts to
better understand how the disease is contracted and spread in
animals and in humans, Palmore said world leaders and policymakers
need to seriously consider the potential international security
implications that would result from an avian influenza pandemic.
"Natural disasters, especially pandemics, can and do affect
international security in many ways," the U. of I. professor wrote
in an article titled "Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza: A Clear and
Present Danger to International Security," scheduled for publication
in an upcoming issue of the journal Defense and Security Analysis.
"They can have disastrous effects on countries' economies,
infrastructures, populations, public health and stability. As a
consequence of natural disasters, governments may fail and
populations may be decimated.
"Thus," Palmore writes, "planning for international security
needs must take into account the effects of natural disasters.
"Since avian influenza is of utmost concern in Asia and in many
other parts of the world, it is imperative that states' governments
and nongovernmental organizations pay attention to the evolution of
the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus."
Palmore, who also addresses this topic in a brief critical
commentary in the March issue of Defense and Security Analysis, said
avian flu poses a potential threat to human security on two fronts.
Because the virus attacks poultry, in effect, it attacks
economies by wiping out the food stocks of affected nations. Both
the poultry and tourism industries in China and other Southeast
Asian countries where the virus has been detected already have been
disrupted by outbreaks of bird flu.
And in today's global marketplace, such disruptions could have
broader, more long-lasting consequences, as economic ripple effects
could affect other countries as well.
To date, only 80 deaths have been attributed to avian flu
worldwide by the World Health Organization, and those deaths have
resulted from human contact with infected birds. But, Palmore said,
the greatest looming threat to international security is a scenario
in which the virus mutates in an abrupt manner, resulting in
human-to-human transmission.
[to top of second column] |
 If that occurred, he said, the number of human deaths tallied
would likely be "on a wider scale than any attack by humans on
humans other than nuclear war."
"People think of international security as things people do or
don't do," Palmore said. But, he noted, the consequences of
infectious-disease outbreaks and natural disasters can be equally
severe.
"We've recently witnessed the effects of just one tidal wave --
one hurricane. And as devastating as those occurrences have been,
they are not ongoing events over an 18-month period."
While theories on how the avian flu is transmitted and spread
among poultry and other fowl remain inconclusive, Palmore said
scientists suspect that migratory birds play a major role.
Ducks, geese and other waterfowl -- including those migrating
from Asia to Europe and others using flyways that take them from
Asia to the United States through Alaska and Canada -- "pose a
significant delivery system for avian influenza as they infect
domestic birds, then animals, by droppings laden with viruses," he
said.
So, what can the world's populations do to arm themselves against
such a potentially destructive, yet virtually invisible, enemy?
"We cannot stop or divert this delivery system," he said. "What
we can do is detect and prevent transmission from domesticated
animals to humans, as animal infections become apparent, through
intensive surveillance."
Such efforts already are under way in various locations, Palmore
said, including in the United States, where volunteers from wildlife
organizations are monitoring local bird populations for disease.
But government officials need to step up their efforts as well,
he said -- even if that means shifting national security priorities
somewhat.
"The international community is right to recognize the threat
posed by international terrorism but not at the expense of threats
such as avian influenza," Palmore said. "For this reason the threat
to human life -- worldwide -- must be prioritized and resources
allocated accordingly.
"By strengthening the surveillance and detection of avian
influenza, the public health organizations will provide an early
warning to the onset of an avian influenza epidemic. In turn, this
warning may provide the opportunity to limit the spread of a virus
that has mutated into a form that allows efficient human-to-human
transmission, thereby thwarting a pandemic."
Palmore plans travel to the United Kingdom in March to
participate in a conference at Wilton Park, Steyning, West Sussex,
on international collaboration on planning for pandemics.
[News release from
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign] |
