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"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13
to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which
three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength
or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher,
Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA
administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named
storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major
hurricanes.
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above-normal
hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal
(the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased
Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface
temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, and the El Nino-La Nina cycle.
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high
when an unexpected El Nino rapidly developed and created a hostile
environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms
did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water
and away from land.
"There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Nina
will form, and if it does, how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell,
Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate
Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that
La Nina could form in the next one to three months. If La Nina
develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the
predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La
Nina becomes. Even if La Nina does not develop, the conditions
associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an
above-normal season."
Bell also noted that preseason storms, such as Subtropical Storm
Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season
ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an
above-normal season."
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"With expectations for an active season, it is critically important
that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the
Caribbean be prepared," said Bill Proenza, National Hurricane Center
director. "Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not when
the storm is bearing down on you." The Atlantic hurricane season
runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with peak activity occurring
August through October. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will issue
an updated seasonal forecast in August, just prior to the historical
peak of the season.
The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook is an official forecast
product of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Instituted in 1998,
this outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA scientists at
the Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane
Research Division and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The
National Hurricane Center has hurricane forecasting responsibilities
for the Atlantic as well as the East Pacific basins. The Climate
Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center are three of the National Weather Service's nine
National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which provide the
United States with first alerts of weather, climate, ocean and space
weather events.
NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national
safety through the prediction and research of weather and
climate-related events, information service delivery for
transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of the
nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global
Earth Observation System of Systems, NOAA is working with its
federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission
to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the
planet it observes, predicts and protects.
On the Web:
[Text from
National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration news release] |
