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 But don't toss out your shredder just yet. Consumer advocates are not convinced the Federal Trade Commission numbers are accurate, though they do agree on a key point highlighted in a footnote of the agency's report: the difficulty in coming up with a reliable assessment of the problem.
An estimated 8.3 million Americans over the age of 18 were victims of identity theft in 2005, according to an analysis of a phone survey released Tuesday by the FTC. That represented a decline of about 16 percent from an estimated 9.9 million victims in 2003, when the agency last conducted its survey.
While the FTC's identity theft survey is broad, the agency acknowledged in a footnote that its conclusion is not "statistically significant" because the sample size was too small.
The government's report drew criticism -- and some sympathy -- from fraud experts and consumer advocacy groups, who cite conflicting data that point to a rise in the number of cases of identity theft in the U.S.
"It's a difficult thing to get a precise handle on," said Susan Grant, vice president of public policy for the National Consumers League. "These surveys are helpful but may not show what's really happening."
Consumers often are unaware their personal information may have been compromised through a data breach, or some other form of fraud, Grant said. And when they don't know they've been victimized, they can't accurately respond to telephone or Web-based surveys.
Furthermore, retailers, banks and brokerage firms -- often the first to be notified by possible identify theft victims
-- are not required to disclose fraud losses, said Avivah Litan, a senior fraud analyst at research company Gartner Inc. "The real number is unknown," Litan said.
Like banks and mortgage lenders hesitant to reveal the extent of the credit crunch, retailers and banks aren't itching to disclose their fraud losses, Litan said. "No one wants to call attention to their fraud problems," she said.
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 Identity theft cost U.S. businesses $55.7 billion in 2006, according to Javelin Strategy & Research. The FTC estimates that in 2006 the cost to consumers was $1.2 billion.
But experts say complaints filed with the FTC offer only a glimpse of the actual damage. "Most people don't even think about calling the government because they are not going to help them get their money back," Litan said.
The FTC estimates that 1.8 million Americans discovered some type of fraud committed using their personal information, 3.2 million had their credit card accounts misused and 3.3 million experienced misuse of other financial accounts.
Javelin's estimates back the FTC's findings. It said 8.4 million people were victims of identity theft in 2007, down from 8.9 million in 2006 and 9.3 million in 2005.
However, a report released by Gartner contradicts them both. Gartner's report showed the number of victims of fraud related to identity theft rose to 15 million during a 12-month period ended August 2006.
To further muddle the matter, both the FTC and Gartner used the same research firm, McLean, Va.-based Synovate. The only difference was Gartner used a Web-based survey of 5,000 U.S. adults, while the FTC used a random-digital-dialing sampling for interviews.
The author of Gartner's February fraud report says neither the FTC nor Javelin is "totally accurate." "It shouldn't matter what channel you use to gather information," Litan said.
Jim Van Dyke, founder and president of Javelin, criticized Gartner for using a Web-based approach, which he contends skews results because consumers who cannot afford Internet access are underrepresented.
[Associated Press; By DONNA BORAK]
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