 Corn acreage could fall 1 percent to 85.1 million acres, down from
85.9 million in 2008. However, harvested acreage might actually
increase, because severe flooding caused farmers to abandon an
unusually high number of fields this year.Last winter, tight
stocks raised the ratio of soybean to corn prices to encourage
farmers to plant 20 percent more soybeans. Current soybean-to-corn
ratios actually favor corn, says Arlan Suderman, Farm Futures market
analyst. "But, in these uncertain times, producers appear reluctant
to invest the extra dollars needed to plant corn," says Suderman.
As a result, Farm Futures estimates soybean acreage could
increase to a record 80.1 million acres in 2009, a jump of more than
5 percent. In addition to shifting corn acres, soybeans could pick
up ground from wheat, cotton and land coming out of the Conservation
Reserve.
Farm Futures puts wheat acreage at 61.7 million acres, down 2.2
percent from 2008. Winter wheat seedings appear to be down the most,
to 45 million, compared with 46.2 million last fall, with spring
wheat and durum each declining around 1 percent.
"Weak basis for soft red winter wheat apparently convinced
farmers to cut back on seedings in the eastern Midwest," says Bryce
Knorr, Farm Futures senior editor, who directs the research. "In the
hard red winter wheat belt, acreage seems to be up in northern
areas, while falling on parts of the southern Plains that were dry."
The Farm Futures survey also sees little change to corn and
soybean estimates in USDA's upcoming January crop report. Corn
production is put at 12 billion bushels, based on yields of 153.5
bushels per acre.
In August, Farm Futures estimated 2008 corn production at 12,061
million bushels, based on average U.S. yields of 154 bushels per
acre. USDA's last estimate, in November, put the crop at 12,020
million bushels, with yields at 153.8 bushels per acre.
For soybeans, Farm Futures estimates a crop of 2,931 million
bushels, based on national yields of 39.4 bushels per acre. The USDA
in November estimated soybean production at 2,921 million bushels,
based on yields of 39.3 bushels per acre.
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"However, our data showed a fairly large degree of uncertainty over
yields," says Knorr, noting that some of the corn crop is still out
in the field, covered by snow. "There's some chance corn yields
could be lower, with soybeans actually higher than our survey
averages."
Farm Futures estimates were released Thursday morning in St.
Louis at the first of two annual Farm Business Management Summits.
The second summit is Jan. 21-22 in Indianapolis. More information on
the seminars may be found at
www.farmfutures.com/summit.
Farm Futures surveyed 840 growers by e-mail from Nov. 24 to Dec.
8.
For more information about the Farm Futures survey, go to
www.farmfutures.com.
[Text from file received from
Farm Futures]
About Farm Futures magazine -- Published
nine times annually, plus a bonus edition in December 2008, by Farm
Progress Cos., Farm Futures provides business and management
information to large-scale, high-income U.S. farm operators.
About Farm Progress Companies -- Farm
Progress Cos. is the largest U.S. media business serving the
agricultural market. The company publishes 18 state and regional
farm publications nationwide, such as Prairie Farmer (founded in
1841 and the nation's oldest, continuously published magazine) in
Illinois; American Agriculturist in New York and the Northeast;
Rural Life, a nationally circulated rural-living consumer magazine;
and Farm Futures, a nationally circulated publication for
high-volume producers. Farm Progress operates four farm trade shows,
including the Farm Progress Show, which is the nation's largest
outdoor farm show, and Husker Harvest Days, and provides tailored
marketing solutions, including database, market research and custom
publishing. Farm Progress is headquartered near Chicago, in St.
Charles.
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