Stocks surge as investors anticipate year-end rally

[November 05, 2008]  NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors believing that Wall Street is on the verge of a year-end rally piled into the market Tuesday, brushing off more weak economic data while they scarfed up stocks and propelled the Dow Jones industrials up 300 points to its highest close in four weeks. Stocks appeared set to hold on to their gains following word that Barack Obama had been elected president.

It was the biggest Election Day rally ever for the Dow, which rose 3.28 percent and topped the 1.2 percent gain seen in 1984 when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale. Prior to 1980, the market was closed on Election Day.

Broader market indexes were also up more than 3 percent Tuesday.

After news of Obama's victory, futures trading fluctuated. After initially firming, Dow futures dipped 60, or 0.6 percent, to 9,529. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures were down 0.6 percentage to 996, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 0.1 percent to 1,382.

Some analysts said the market rose Tuesday on relief that the presidential election was about to be decided. But others said investors were anticipating a year-end recovery from Wall Street's huge sell-off and bought to be sure they didn't miss out on its start.

"I seriously doubt it has much to do with the election, other than we're all looking forward to it being over," said independent investment strategist Edward Yardeni.

The fact that Wall Street is in the final stretch of a tough year is probably lifting stocks more than the elections, he said. "It's almost been a classic textbook crash in September and October followed by a year-end rally."

Steven Goldman, chief market strategist at Weeden & Co., said, "historically, we were at the most oversold levels since October 1974."

"We've come to levels that would tend to discount a lot of bad news," he said.

In Asia, most markets rose Wednesday as uncertainty about the U.S. presidency lifted. Japan's Nikkei index rose 4.5 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 2.8 percent in afternoon trading.

There's still a feeling the market might fall back and retest the trading lows reached Oct. 10 before entering a true bull market. But it's possible that the retrenchment won't happen until 2009 -- in similar oversold markets in 1974 and 2002, Goldman said, the return to the lows of the bear market did not happen until two months later.

Analysts predict Obama's policies will likely be guided by the weak economy and the recent flood of government support designed to keep the global financial system from collapsing.

The market again looked past a downbeat economic report, as it did on Monday, when investors calmly received a report of a big slowdown in manufacturing before the Dow finished essentially flat.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that factory orders fell 2.5 percent in September from August, much worse than the 0.7 percent drop analysts predicted. But investors generally expect data from September and October to be extremely weak, as credit markets began to seize up in mid-September. Analysts believe much of the bad news is already factored into stock prices; last week saw the Dow rise 11.3 percent -- its best weekly gain in 34 years.

"The risk of a depression is off the table," said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer of Tradition Capital Management.

Still, some analysts say the market's gains might not be sustainable. Though the uncertainty surrounding the election will be cleared, they said there are still many economic challenges, and some of the market volatility seen in October, in the weeks and months ahead.

"In the next couple of days, people are going to focus on the fact that we still have these issues," said Bernie McGinn, chief executive of McGinn Investment Management, referring to the worsening economy. "They aren't resolved."

The Dow rose 305.45, or 3.28 percent, to 9,625.28. The Dow last closed above 9,500 on Oct. 6, when it finished at 9,955.50.

The broader indexes also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 39.45, or 4.08 percent, to 1,005.75, its first close over the 1,000 mark since Oct. 13. In the past six sessions, the S&P 500 has rallied 18.3 percent. That includes a 10.8 percent jump that occurred Oct. 28 after last month's steep sell-off.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 53.79, or 3.12 percent, to 1,780.12, its sixth straight advance and its longest winning streak of the year.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 7.47, or 1.39 percent, to 545.97.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 5.45 billion shares, compared with 4.36 billion shares traded Monday.

Energy and industrial stocks led the market higher, while health care names, often a defensive investment, showed more modest advances. Exxon Mobil Corp. rose 4.3 percent, aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. rose 5 percent and Johnson & Johnson advanced 1.2 percent.

There were other signs of the market's growing confidence. Wall Street's fear gauge, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, fell to 47.73, its lowest close since Oct. 3. The VIX normally trades below 30 and tracks options activity for the companies that make up the S&P 500; it closed as high as 80.06, on Oct. 27.

Investors have overlooked a spate of bad economic data recently, including the report Monday from the Institute for Supply Management that revealed the worst monthly contraction in manufacturing activity. Additionally, automakers reported the lowest level of U.S. car sales in more than 17 years. The market closed narrowly mixed in light trading Monday, with the Dow making just a single-digit point decline -- something that has become unheard of in recent months in the midst of daily several hundred point swings.

"The economic activity in October is obviously very poor," said Halliburton, "and is going to have some very bad numbers reported, and I think that is going to continue in the fourth quarter." As such, investors have begun dipping their toes back in to the market to take advantage of some of the buying opportunities created by the violent swings last month.

The disruptions in the credit markets were at the heart of the recent market volatility, as the evaporation in lending made it difficult for businesses and consumers to get loans, and sparked widespread panic about the economy's ability to avoid a severe downturn. While lending has eased somewhat, analysts contend that the state of the credit markets will remain one of the biggest land mines in the weeks ahead.

The key bank-to-bank lending rate known as Libor fell to 2.71 percent from Monday's rate of 2.86 percent for three-month dollar loans. A fall in the London Interbank Offered Rate indicates that banks are more willing to lend to one another; a month ago, when the credit markets were paralyzed by banks' fear that they wouldn't be repaid on loans, it stood at 4.33 percent.

Investors' demand for short-term government debt remained high, however, a sign that they are still cautious and willing to take a very small return on their investments in exchange for security. The yield on the three-month Treasury bill, seen as one of the safest assets around, stood flat at 0.47 percent from late Monday. A low yield indicates high demand.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.73 percent from 3.92 percent late Monday.

The dollar fell against most other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Light, sweet crude jumped $6.62 to settle at $70.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a reaction to the slide in the dollar.

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On the Net:

New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com/

Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com/

[Associated Press; By SARA LEPRO and TIM PARADIS]

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