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"The installation of cokers is pretty much a permanent change for refiners," said Ken Simonson, an economist for the Associated General Contractors of America. "More of them are likely to be out of the asphalt business and that will keep up the pressure on asphalt for some time." Big companies that run a number of refineries around country have installed the cokers, including Tesoro Corp., Valero Energy Corp. and Marathon Oil Corp. At the beginning of the year, a ton of asphalt -- or 5.5 barrels -- was selling for about $300. At one point the price rose above $800 per ton, said NuStar vice president Mike Stone. Refiner Alon USA Energy Inc. said its net income nearly tripled in the third quarter to $37 million in part because asphalt prices surged 80 percent from a year earlier to $614 per ton. In Colorado, more than 20 road projects have been delayed. In Washington state, at least three counties have announced delays as well. In Seattle, one local asphalt supplier was directly affected by the cutbacks at refineries, and that left two counties short of asphalt. More cokers are scheduled to come online between 2010 and 2011, meaning the dearth of asphalt is only likely to become magnified, said Greg Matula, a spokesman for NuStar Energy. The company estimates that the nation needs about 500,000 barrels daily to keep demand. There are signs, however, that falling oil prices will prompt some refiners to reconsider building new cokers as a way to rein in spending. For example, Valero executives told investors during a conference call last month that the company would scrap plans for a new coker at its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas.
NuStar, though, is banking on increasingly thin supplies of asphalt, and it has bought asphalt refineries in New Jersey and Georgia to benefit. The skyrocketing price of asphalt has had at least one positive effect -- on the concrete industry, as its product becomes more attractive to city engineers. But John V. Arroyo, Executive Director of Northwest Cement Producers Group, said it will take another eight to 12 months to know if the concrete industry will get more contracts, and that a broader economic slowdown will make an impact as well
-- not just asphalt prices. "There's been so much more awareness among public work staff because of high oil prices this year, just now they're starting to look elsewhere and look at other options," Arroyo said.
[Associated
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