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[November 11, 2008]
URBANA -- Stabilization of the financial
markets and energy prices provides some support for corn and soybean
prices now, but recovery in those markets will be required to fuel a
meaningful post-harvest recovery for those crops, said a University
of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
"Final production estimates for U.S. corn and soybean crops will
be released in January by the USDA," said Darrel Good. "Until then,
prices will be influenced by the development of Southern Hemisphere
crops; the pace of consumption; and general demand as reflected in
the financial, currency and energy markets."
Good's comments came as he reviewed the USDA's final production
forecasts for 2008 U.S. crops. The projections include a U.S.
corn crop of 12.02 billion bushels and a soybean crop of 2.921
billion bushels. Those forecasts reflected U.S. average yields
of 153.8 and 39.3 bushels, respectively.
"The forecast size of
the corn crop is 13 million bushels smaller than the revised
October projection and 46 million bushels smaller than the
average trade guess," he said. "The average yield forecast is
0.1 bushel below the October forecast.
"The Illinois yield forecast is two bushels above the October
forecast. At 179 bushels, the expected yield is only one bushel
below the record yield of 2004. The forecast yield for Ohio is
seven bushels below the October forecast."
For the corn supply-and-demand balance sheet, some revisions
were made in both the 2007-08 estimates and the 2008-09
projections. For last year, the estimate of the amount of corn
used for ethanol was increased by 26 million bushels, offset
with a 25-million-bushel reduction in the estimate of feed use.
"For the current year, the projection of exports was reduced
by 50 million bushels, to only 1.9 billion," Good said. "That
forecast is 536 million, or 22 percent, below the record exports
of last year. The lower projection reflects the sluggish pace of
exports and export sales experienced so far this year and the
large grain crops outside the United States.
"Cumulative U.S. corn export inspections through Nov. 6 were
36 percent smaller than shipments of a year ago, while unshipped
sales as of Oct. 30 were 43 percent smaller than outstanding
sales of a year earlier."
Coarse grain production outside the United States is now
projected at a record 767.9 million tons, which is 2 million
tons larger than the October forecast and 41 million tons larger
than last year's production.
Wheat production outside the United States is projected at
614.3 million tons, which is 2.2 million tons larger than the
October forecast and 60 million tons larger than last year's
Stocks of U.S. corn at the end of the current marketing year
are projected at 1.124 billion bushels, which is 500 million
less than the inventory on Sept. 1, 2008, but 36 million larger
than the October forecast. The 2008-09 U.S. average farm price
is forecast in a range of $4 to $4.80, compared with the average
of $4.20 received for the 2007 crop.
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The forecast size of the 2008 U.S. soybean crop is 17 million
bushels smaller than the October forecast and about 5 million larger
than the average pre-report guess, Good noted.
The U.S. average yield forecast is 0.2 bushel below the October
forecast and the lowest yield in five years. The Illinois average
yield forecast was increased by one bushel from the October
forecast, to 46 bushels, while the Indiana forecast was increased by
two bushels, to 44 bushels. Yield forecasts were lowered by one
bushel in Minnesota and Nebraska; by two bushels in North Dakota,
Ohio and Wisconsin; and three bushels in South Dakota.
"The USDA's projection of the 2008-09 domestic soybean crush was
reduced by 15 million bushels, resulting in an unchanged forecast of
year-ending stocks," he said. "The projection of marketing year
exports was left unchanged at 1.02 billion bushels despite the fast
start to the 2008-09 export program. The projection is 12 percent
smaller than the record shipments of a year ago.
"Through the first 9.5 weeks of the year, export inspections were
about 3 percent larger than those of a year ago."
Unshipped sales as of Oct. 30 were 27 percent larger than the
outstanding sales of a year earlier. The forecast size of the 2009
Brazilian soybean crop was reduced by 92 million bushels. That is
about 37 million less than the 2008 harvest.
The projection of Brazilian soybean exports during the current
marketing year was reduced by 55 million bushels. Argentine
production in 2009 is still projected to be 158 million bushels
larger than in 2008. The projection of 2008-09 Argentine soybean
exports was increased by about 30 million bushels from the October
"The 2008-09 U.S. average farm price of soybeans is now projected
in a range of $9.10 to $10.60, 60 cents lower than the October
projection," Good said. "The average price received last year was
[Text from file received
from the University
of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental