Polls: Israel's Livni holding against Netanyahu

[October 27, 2008]  JERUSALEM (AP) -- Tzipi Livni, the moderate leader of Israel's ruling party, was holding her ground against hawkish rival Benjamin Netanyahu a day after she steered the country toward early elections, polls showed on Monday.

The surveys hinted at what is expected to be a tough race between political leaders with sharply different world views. As foreign minister, Livni has been Israel's chief peace negotiator with the Palestinians for the past year, and repeatedly has spoken of the need to make territorial concessions. Netanyahu takes a hard line against ceding land won in war, and has ruled out partitioning Jerusalem, a key Palestinian demand.

A poll by the Dahaf Research Institute showed Livni's Kadima Party winning 29 of parliament's 120 seats -- the same number it has now -- and Netanyahu's Likud taking 26 if elections were held today. A TNS Teleseker survey gave Kadima 31 seats to Likud's 29.

The surveys also showed the country's hawkish and center-left blocs fairly evenly split, a deadlock that has paralyzed peacemaking in the past.

The Dahaf poll of 500 people had a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The TNS survey of more than 900 people put the maximum margin of error at two parliamentary seats.

Livni took the helm at Kadima last month in a primary election forced by corruption allegations against the incumbent prime minister, Ehud Olmert. She tried to avoid propelling Israel toward its third national election in six years by keeping the current government intact.

But her coalition partners, most prominently the 12-seat ultra-Orthodox Shas Party, used the situation to press new demands she said she would not accept. Without Shas' support, Livni would have headed a government with a razor-thin majority, and would have found it difficult to take the bold steps peacemaking requires.

Livni resisted Shas' demands for hundreds of millions of dollars for social welfare programs and a commitment that Israel would not negotiate Jerusalem's future.

In a meeting with President Shimon Peres broadcast live on national TV, Livni said she would not give in to "political blackmail."

"We'll go to elections ... and I intend to win them," she told Peres, whose ceremonial duties include presiding over the election and coalition-building process.

Elections are expected to take place in February or March, a year and a half ahead of schedule.

The surveys published Monday suggested the public approved of her tough stand against the political horse trading and did not reproach her for failing to marshal a coalition. But the advantage was narrow and could easily evaporate -- especially if new Israeli-Palestinian violence erupts.

Netanyahu, who has been pressing for new elections for months, has not commented publicly since Livni abandoned her coalition-building efforts. He addresses the opening of parliament's winter session later Monday.

Commenting on the polls, Likud faction head Gideon Saar told Israel Radio he believes "the majority of the public wants a new course ... that will improve the country's economy and security."

Israeli-Palestinian peace talks were relaunched nearly a year ago at a U.S.-hosted summit, where Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas set a December 2008 target for clinching a final accord. But no breakthroughs have been announced and both leaders have acknowledged publicly that there will be no deal by year's end.

The internal political turmoil has cast a cloud of uncertainty over the talks, and Palestinians worry that precious time was running out.

[Associated Press; By AMY TEIBEL]

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