Another key interest rate cut expected from Fed

[October 29, 2008]  WASHINGTON (AP) -- The worst financial crisis in 70 years has forced the Federal Reserve to employ all the weapons in its arsenal -- including cutting interest rates to near historic lows -- to try to keep the country from plunging into a deep recession.

Fed policymakers are expected to slash a key interest rate by a half-point, pushing the federal funds rate down to 1 percent, as they wrap up a two-day meeting Wednesday.

That would put the Fed's target for the interest banks charge each other on overnight lows down at level last seen during a 12-month period from June 2003 to June 2004. Before that period, the funds rate had not been that low in 45 years, since Dwight Eisenhower was president.

Economists believe the Fed is prepared to cut rates that low because of the rising fears that the financial turmoil of the past two months is raising the specter of a deep and prolonged recession.

"The Fed is going to send a very strong signal that they will do whatever it takes to restore stability to the economy," predicted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

The prospect of another sizable rate cut, coming just three weeks a half-point move that was coordinate with a number of countries, sent the stock market soaring on Tuesday, pushing the Dow Jones industrial average up by 889.35 points, its second-biggest point gain in history.

Even if the Fed does fulfill the desires of investors with its action Wednesday, it is not likely to end the turbulence on Wall Street. Analysts are cautioning to be prepared for more stomach-churning days ahead as investors struggle to deal with a severe credit crisis and what could be the worst recession in at least two decades.

A half-point rate cut on Wednesday would push borrowing costs lower for millions of consumer and business loans with banks moving quickly to match the Fed's action by lowering their benchmark prime lending rate from 4.5 percent, where it has been for the past three weeks, down to 4 percent.

The Fed is hoping that the sharply lower rates will help boost economic growth going forward. The government will release its first look at economic activity in the July-September quarter on Thursday and that is expected to show that the gross domestic product shrank at a rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

Many analysts believe the GDP -- the measure of the value of all the goods and services produced in the country -- is falling further in the current quarter and will also fall in the first three months of next year.

That pattern would meet the classic definition of a recession as at least two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. Many economists think that when the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end in this country, makes its decision, it will date this downturn to the beginning of 2008, when the labor market started shedding jobs.

The country has lost jobs every month this year and the unemployment rate now stands at 6.1 percent. Economists forecast that it could hit 8 percent by the spring of next year due to the severity of the shutdown of bank lending, a credit crisis triggered by billions of dollars of losses in mortgage lending as defaults soared to record levels.

That has jolted banks, resulted in government takeovers of the nation's two biggest mortgage companies and the biggest shakeup on Wall Street since the Great Depression. Banks have become fearful about making new loans, a development that has had ripple effects on American businesses trying to get loans for normal operations, and on American consumers, who are having trouble getting car loans and home loans.

"The credit squeeze has moved from Wall Street to Main Street and it is seriously affecting the real economy and now it has gone global," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at the Smith School of Business at California State University, Channel Islands.

Many analysts believe a rate cut in the United States will be followed by cuts in other major economies as central banks around the world try to inject confidence into a badly shaken financial system.

Analysts are split, however, on whether a Fed rate move this week will be followed by another rate cut at the central bank's last meeting of the year on Dec. 16.

Some analysts think the Fed could drive the funds rate as low as 0.5 percent and might even go to zero, which the Bank of Japan did in an effort to combat a decade-long bout of malaise in the 1990s caused by a real estate bust in that country.

Other analysts believe the Fed will be content to lower the funds rate to 1 percent and leave it there, partly because pushing it any lower would remove any cushion to cut the rate further should the economy fail to respond and the downturn worsen.

These analysts believe the Fed will depend on its other efforts to battle the credit crisis, which involve supplying massive resources to the banking system.

David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, said that Fed officials will probably decide that all the global efforts to fight the credit squeeze, including a $700 billion rescue fund in this country, should be given time to work.

But Jones, who thinks the economy will remain in a recession until the middle of next year, said he believes that the Fed will signal that it is prepared to leave the funds rate at 1 percent for some time to come.

When the Fed under former Chairman Alan Greenspan "cut the funds rate to 1 percent and left it there for a year, they kept saying rates would remain low for a considerable period of time," Jones said. "I think this time rates will stay at 1 percent for a longer period."

[Associated Press; By MARTIN CRUTSINGER]

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.