 "One of those factors is the potential size of the 2008 U.S.
harvest, and the other is the level of energy prices," said
Darrel Good. "Crop size is important for obvious reasons, and
energy prices are important in determining the value of crops
for biofuels production."That link is especially important
for ethanol and corn prices."
On Sept. 12, the USDA will release a new production forecast
for corn and soybeans. There appears to be a fairly wide range
of expectations for the size of the new forecasts, which will
primarily reflect a reassessment of yield potential.
"The dry end to the growing season in some important
production areas has some leaning toward smaller yield
forecasts," he noted. "Improving weather in southern growing
areas and relatively high crop condition ratings suggest to
others that yield forecasts might hold steady or increase."
As of Aug. 24, just ahead of the survey period for the
September yield forecasts, the USDA reported that 64 percent of
the corn crop and 61 percent of the soybean crop was rated in
good or excellent condition.
"If those ratings held through the end of the growing season,
past relationships between crop condition ratings and the
trend-adjusted U.S. average yield would point to 2008 average
yields of 154.4 bushels for corn and 43.5 bushels for soybeans,"
he said.
"Such a corn yield would be 0.6 bushels below the August
forecast, but the soybean yield would be three bushels above the
August forecast. Over the past 35 years, the largest increase in
the U.S. average soybean yield forecast in September was 2.2
bushels in 2006. That year, the actual U.S. yield was 3.1
bushels above the August forecast."
Another way to form expectations about the September yield
forecasts using the crop condition ratings is from the change in
condition ratings since the survey period for the August
forecast. The percentage of the crops rated good or excellent
since that time has dropped two percentage points for both
crops.
"Such a decline points to a 1.3 bushel decline in the corn
yield forecast, to 153.7 bushels, and a 0.4 bushel decline in
the soybean yield forecast, to 40.1 bushels," he said. "Those
calculated changes could be adjusted by the crop condition
ratings released on Sept. 2."
Beyond the September yield forecasts, the location and amount
of rainfall in early September will likely be more important for
soybean yields than for corn yields, he added.
"If the estimates of harvested acreage and the forecasts of
consumption during the 2008-09 marketing year remain unchanged,
the lower yield forecast based on the change in crop condition
ratings during August would point to year-ending stocks of 1.03
billion bushels for corn and 106 million bushels for soybeans,"
Good said.
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Prices for crude oil and the resulting price of unleaded gasoline
have implications for the price of ethanol and the price ethanol
producers can pay for corn.
"As a guide, the maximum economic value of ethanol is the price
of unleaded gasoline, adjusted for the difference in energy content,
plus the blender's tax credit," he said. "That credit is currently
at 51 cents per gallon but is scheduled to decline to 45 cents in
2009.
"The current price of wholesale unleaded gasoline of about $2.70
per gallon makes ethanol worth about $2.26 per gallon with a 45
cents blender's tax credit. Assuming that the price of corn and
distillers grain move together and that the non-corn cost of making
ethanol is about $2.60 per bushel, the break-even price of corn for
ethanol producers is about $5 per bushel."
Good noted that factors beyond crop size and energy prices could
be important for corn and soybean prices.
"The ultimate size of the world wheat crop, prospects for South
American soybean production, world economic conditions and perhaps
the value of the U.S. dollar will influence export demand," he said.
"The profitability of the U.S. livestock industry will influence
domestic feed demand.
"The year-over-year decline in domestic soybean meal consumption
since April and the sizeable year-over-year decline in the domestic
soybean crush in July indicate some weakening of feed demand,
although part of the decline is likely the result of larger supplies
of distillers grains."
Current prospects for supply, consumption and stocks suggest that
corn and soybean prices will remain relatively high but will likely
trade in a wide range for an extended period.
"That volatility will likely increase even further with the start
of the 2009 planting season," Good said.
[Text from file received
from the University
of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental
Sciences]
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