OPEC considers cutting oil production

[September 08, 2008]  VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Iran's oil minister said Monday that there is too much crude on the market, adding that OPEC is reviewing whether supply exceeds demand before deciding whether to cut back production.

Gholam Hossein Nozari spoke on the eve of a meeting of OPEC oil ministers who will decide whether to reduce production or keep it steady. Oil prices have fallen nearly 30 percent from their highs of almost US$150 a barrel, prompting general concern among OPEC's 13 members, but Iran, the group's No. 2 producer, has been the most vocal proponent of tightening the oil spigots.

"We believe the market is oversupplied," he told reporters, adding the ministers planned to make a decision on what to do about production after their review Tuesday.

No one is predicting much of a cutback -- if any at all. Still, such a move would not even have been thought of with oil prices setting record after record back in July.

But the bull run appears to have paused, if not ended, which means a new look at options for Tuesday's meeting of the 13 ministers at OPEC's Vienna headquarters.

Since crude surged to a record US$147.27 a barrel on July 11, it has tumbled by over US$40, or more than 27 percent. Back then, OPEC's main concern was pushing back against arguments from the U.S. and other key consumers that an output increase was needed to end rocketing prices. Oil ministers insisted there was adequate supply to meet demand, and blamed speculators and a weak U.S. dollar for crude's stellar rise.

But now, the greenback has strengthened, world demand has decreased due to creaky economies, traders' appetites for commodities have cooled -- and suddenly the market appears to have turned bearish. Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell US$1.66 to settle at US$106.23 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- its lowest close since early April.

The downward spiral has led Iran to suggest that it is time to reduce output from the nearly 30.5 million barrels a day being pumped last month by the organization's members.

Not far behind is Venezuela. While moderating recent demands for immediate output cuts, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez has drawn the line at US$100 per barrel of oil. Anything below that should serve as a wake-up call for OPEC to tighten the spigots, he says -- sentiment that is shared by other OPEC members.

Still, a major cutback is unlikely without Saudi compliance, and the Saudis -- de-facto OPEC policy setters who are now producing nearly a third of total OPEC output -- have given no hint they favor that option. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi has instead talked about a floor of US$80 as the red line for action.

OPEC has reason to be cautious.

Despite their precipitous fall, prices remain 14 percent higher this year than in 2007, and a barrel of benchmark crude still fetches four times what it did five years ago.

Any OPEC move Tuesday to pare back output would result in a howl of protest from the U.S. and other major consumers, and give a larger platform to Republican presidential candidate John McCain and Barack Obama, his Democratic counterpart, to call for reduced dependence on foreign oil.

Additionally, OPEC understands that high prices drive down demand and will likely try to find a balance between high profits and a price that the market can accept.

In a forecast last month, OPEC predicted that the world's forecast appetite for oil for this year overall will have fallen by 30,000 barrels a day and noted that world demand growth next year will be "the lowest since 2002." And on Wednesday, the U.S Energy Administration reported a 3.5-percent drop for products including gasoline and other oil-based products compared with last year.

Such factors have led some experts to predict OPEC would opt for no change.

"The ministers will hold the status quo (although) there is going to be the usual jawboning from the usual suspects" for a cutback, says trader analyst Stephen Schork. Even now, "oil is by no means cheap and that is certainly adding a lot of pressure to the (world's) economies -- the smarter ones, the Saudis, the Qataris the Kuwaitis are aware of this."

Others think that OPEC, which accounts for about 40 percent of world oil production, will compromise between doing nothing -- thereby chancing a further erosion in prices -- and slashing boldly -- thereby risking skyrocketing prices and an ensuing fallback in demand.

That middle way would mean agreeing to pare away at overproduction without reducing the overall output quota of 27.3 million barrels a day set in November for the 12 OPEC members under production limits.

Energy analyst Catherine Hunter of Global Insight estimates overproduction at between 600,000 and 800,000 barrels a day and says this is the likely "first target of cuts." And because most of the extra production comes from Saudi wells, such a move could be easily accepted by most OPEC members.

"Ultimately, OPEC wants to know what the market will bear," she writes in a recent Global Insight analysis, adding that with the world's developed economies expected to perform poorly -- and a resulting overspill to East Asian markets -- "the answer may well be, not much."

[Associated Press; By PABLO GORONDI]

Associated Press writer George Jahn contributed to this report from Vienna.

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