Candidates fight it out in must-win Pennsylvania

[September 23, 2008]  YORK, Pa. (AP) -- The presidential race in Pennsylvania may well come down to a fight for the hearts and minds of people like Cindy Moran.

She's afraid that Republican John McCain will continue economic policies that led to the current financial crisis. But Democrat Barack Obama's remark last April that rural Pennsylvanians cling to their guns and religion still makes her uneasy.

"It's just, I don't know what he's thinking," Moran said of Obama as she pondered the candidates after coffee at a rural farmers market near the Maryland border. "I don't know what he wants, really. It'll be a last-minute decision, I think."

There are plenty of reasons things should be going Obama's way in Pennsylvania.

The state was a Democratic highlight in 2006 as the party took control of Congress, picking up a Senate seat and four House seats here -- more than in any other state. Since 2004, when President Bush barely lost the state to John Kerry, the Democratic advantage in party registration over the GOP has swelled to more than 1 million -- including 100,000 voters who have joined the party since the state's April primaries.

Even history is on Obama's side: A GOP presidential candidate hasn't won the state since 1988.

But this was Hillary Rodham Clinton country during the primary elections -- she defeated Obama decisively.

And the lead Obama had over McCain in polling here before the party conventions has dwindled. That's partly because of a burst of enthusiasm for McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, but Obama also has been struggling in Pennsylvania to attract the white working-class voters who flocked to Clinton in the primaries.

Both GOP candidates were campaigning in the state Monday.

The stakes are enormous: With 8.5 million registered voters and 21 electoral votes, Pennsylvania could decide who takes the White House.

In McCain, Republicans say they've found a good fit for independent-minded voters in the state, who tend to be socially conservative. More than 10 percent of Pennsylvanians are military veterans, and the state ranks third in the percentage of people 65 and older, offering common ground with a 72-year-old former Vietnam prisoner of war.

There are Democratic strongholds in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and conservative bastions in Pennsylvania's rural central and northern regions. But the state's middle-class Philadelphia suburbs and old industrial towns are home to many voters willing to vote across party lines.

Some haven't forgotten Obama's comment during a San Francisco fundraiser in April that bitter voters in rural Pennsylvanians cling to guns and religion because of their economic frustrations.

The state has fared better economically than its Rust Belt counterparts, Ohio and Michigan. But the number of residents who were unemployed reached a five-year high in August, and there's plenty of worry about the economy and government spending.

Larry Fales Sr., 65, of York, a retired railroad worker, is one of the Democrats who hasn't warmed up to Obama. Taking a break from the Hungry Parrot Pizza Co. where he helps out his son, Fales said he would have voted for Clinton in the election, but now he'll vote for McCain.

Obama is "great at giving speeches and everything like that, but I just don't trust his past, and he promises too much," Fales said. "I don't care who it is, no one can give what he promises he's going to give."

Then there's the issue of race.

Another Democrat, Robert L. Hamilton Jr., 77, a Korean War veteran and retired postal worker, said he's leaning toward Obama but isn't sure about some others.

"The bad part about Obama is you're going to have too many people vote against him because of his race," Hamilton said.

Reaching out to voters like Fales and Hamilton, Obama selected as his running mate Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, a Scranton native with lunchbucket roots.

That helped seal the deal for voter Jay Weissman, 55, a therapist from the suburban Philadelphia town of Wynnewood, who spoke about the campaign while eating ice cream in his parked car.

"I was concerned about his lack of experience, but that has been allayed with the appointment of Joe Biden," said Weissman, a Democrat who said he was a registered Republican until about five years ago. "I feel much better about that now."

McCain, in turn, picked a running mate seemingly tailored to blue-collar Pennsylvania: Palin, an anti-abortion rights candidate who supports gun rights.

That won over Terri Morton, 47, of Lancaster County, who's registered as a Republican but voted for Al Gore in 2000 and Kerry four years ago. She said she was open to voting for Obama, but swung to McCain after watching Palin speak at the Republican convention.

"She's a regular person with real problems, family issues and all that, and that did it for me," Morton said from the clubhouse of the Four Seasons Golf Course, where she works as food and beverage manager.

As on every other issue, Pennsylvanians are hardly unanimous on the veep choice:

- "I trust my wife with anything and everything, and I trust Sarah the same way. She'll make the right decisions," said Phil Reilly, 48, a construction business owner and father of four from Chester Springs.

- "I understand they needed to do that to bring some change in and go after my demographic of women white voters, but it's not enough to sway me," said Gabrielle Raia, 35, a biotech sales representative and real estate agent from Conshohocken.

Recognizing the need to attract blue-collar workers, the Obama team starting running an ad focused on the 2003 closure of a Corning Inc. plant in State College. The ad blames Washington -- and McCain help -- for selling workers out.

But Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director, said, "His record as one of an independent, as a maverick, brings a special appeal that you need in Pennsylvania."

One place Obama seems to be holding his own is in the Philadelphia suburbs, said Clay Richards, a pollster at Quinnipiac University. The region has historically voted Republican but has been moving more Democratic.

One Republican there, Matthew Curry, 25, an elementary school teacher who was selling lottery tickets at the Brewer's Outlet in Chadds Ford to pick up some extra money, said he thinks McCain is a good guy but too close to Bush.

"I plan on voting for Barack Obama," Curry said. "I like pretty much everything. I like Joe Biden. I agree that he's going for change."

[Associated Press; By KIMBERLY HEFLING]

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.