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From the responses, the researchers determined what elements raised the risk of violent behavior.
There were 3,089 people deemed to have severe mental illness -- schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression -- but no history of either violence or substance abuse. They reported very few violent acts, about 50, between interviews.
But when mental illness was combined with a history of violence and a history of substance abuse, as in about 1,600 people, the risk of future violence increased by a factor of 10.
The relationship between mental illness and violence is there, "but it's not as strong as people think," Elbogen said.
Predicting who will act violently is complex, said John Monahan, a psychologist at University of Virginia's law school, who has done similar research but was not involved in the new study.
"It is true that our crystal balls are very murky," Monahan said. "The vast majority of violence that occurs in American society has absolutely nothing to do with mental illness."
The large national survey, conducted by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, included people living in shelters, hotels and group homes, as well as houses and apartments, but it didn't include people living in hospitals, jails or prisons.
Rosanna Esposito of the nonprofit Treatment Advocacy Center in Arlington, Va., applauded the study but pointed out the researchers weren't able to analyze whether the subjects were in psychiatric treatment or not. Medication for serious mental illness can reduce the risk of violence, she said.
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