Iran's small satellite raises alarms

[February 04, 2009]  WASHINGTON (AP) -- Iran's successful launch of its first satellite into orbit suggests a strong desire to become both a space and nuclear power -- and growing technological prowess toward that goal.

Iran used a multistage rocket in Monday's launch, putting a small and rudimentary communications satellite into space, according to a U.S. counterproliferation official and another government official Tuesday. They both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence collected by other U.S. government organizations.

Iran used the Safir, a modified Shahab-3 that normally has a range of under 800 miles, to launch the satellite. Iran failed in a multistage Safir launch attempt in August and now has overcome whatever technical problem felled that test.

"Having a multistage rocket is a big step forward in rocket technology," said Jonathan McDowell, a space program analyst at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. "The bigger context is they've done this under a sanctions regime, very much on their own. They proved that it's really not that hard to get a satellite up."

David Albright, a nuclear expert with the Institute for Science and International Security, said the rocket used did not have intercontinental reach and does not appear big enough to hold a nuclear warhead. But it does speak to Iranian intentions.

"It says they are persistent and continue to work away on developing a missile capability," he said. "This should remind us you can't forget about Iran and their nuclear program."

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Iran's efforts to develop long-range missiles are of acute concern.

"The president is clear that he wants Iran to be a responsible member of the world community," Gibbs said. "This action does not convince us that Iran is acting responsibly to advance stability or security in the region."

Foreign space-launch rockets are of interest to U.S. intelligence because the guidance technology, missiles and engines can be applied toward building ballistic missiles that are capable of delivering nuclear warheads.

At the Pentagon, spokesman Geoff Morrell said the technology "could be applied toward the development of a long-range ballistic missile, and that is a cause of concern to us, and I think certainly everybody in the region ... as well as to our allies in Europe."

U.S. intelligence officials believe Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon, but point to its continued enrichment of uranium -- fuel for a warhead -- and its missile test and development program as strong suggestions it is headed in that direction.

McDowell said the U.S. can expect Iran to begin launching larger and more capable space and communications satellites into higher orbits in the coming years. The satellite launched this week is expected to fall out of orbit in two or three months.

McDowell said Iran's work on space launch technology could be a way for Tehran to develop technology that can be applied to nuclear weapons without tripping any immediate diplomatic wires.

"Having the space launch vehicle is less likely to get them bombed, but it still makes the point that they have the technology that gets them the seat at the table," he said. "They really want respect. They don't like being told by countries that have rockets that they are not allowed to have rockets."

Whether the rocket used two or three stages to put the satellite into orbit was not immediately clear. According to Geoffrey Forden, a research analyst at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who also writes for the blog armscontrolwonk, it makes a difference.

"If it was a two-stage rocket that means Iran has managed to develop faster and further than we thought they would," he said. "If it was a three-stage rocket, things are not as surprising or as frightening."

A three-stage rocket would mean Iran had cobbled together liquid propulsion systems from relatively simple Scud missiles and put in a tiny motor for the final push into orbit. If it was just two more powerful stages, Iran has potentially leapfrogged past North Korean technology and has a much more sophisticated design.

Forden said amateur satellite observers spotted the satellite -- about the size of a small television- around 3 p.m. EST in Edinburgh, Scotland. What they saw initially suggests that the rocket had only two stages. But they might have not not been able to spot a third stage, which would be expected to be smaller.

[Associated Press; By PAMELA HESS]

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