 "However, the fate of the Argentine corn crop may have an impact
on U.S. corn exports," said Darrel Good. "Earlier this month,
the USDA reduced the projected size of Argentine production and
exports by nearly 60 million bushels."Further reductions are
likely and could result in a small increase in the demand for
U.S. corn."
Good's comments came as he reviewed the progress of U.S. corn
and soybean exports during the first five months of the 2008-09
marketing year. During this time, soybean exports and export
sales have been surprisingly large. In contrast, exports and
export sales of corn have been disappointingly small.
At the beginning of the marketing year (September 2008), the
USDA projected marketing year soybean exports at 1 billion
bushels. That forecast is now at 1.1 billion bushels, only 61
million (5.3 percent) less than the record exports of a year
ago.
In September 2008, the USDA projected corn exports at 2
billion bushels. That forecast is now at 1.75 billion bushels,
which is 686 million (28 percent) less than the record shipments
of a year ago.
"As of Jan. 22, 20.5 weeks into the 2008-09 marketing year,
the USDA reported cumulative U.S. soybean export inspections at
627 million bushels, 65 million larger than the cumulative total
of a year earlier," said Good. "Through November 2008,
cumulative Census Bureau estimates of soybean exports were 16
million bushels larger than the USDA export inspection
estimates, about the same margin as last year.
"The larger shipments to date reflect the rapid pace of
imports by China. As of Jan. 15, exports to China totaled 352
million bushels, 39 percent more than exports of a year earlier.
Nearly 60 percent of U.S. exports through Jan. 15 were to China,
compared to 47 percent last year."
To reach the USDA projection of 1.1 billion bushels for the
year, shipments to all destinations during the final 31.5 weeks
of the year need to average only 14.5 million bushels per week,
he added.
"Last year, export shipments averaged 17.7 million bushels
per week during the final 31.5 weeks of the year," he said.
As of Jan. 15, 276 million bushels of U.S. soybeans had been
sold for export but not yet shipped. Unshipped sales a year
earlier totaled 297 million bushels. Assuming all of the
outstanding sales are actually shipped, only 180 million bushels
of new sales are required to reach the 1.1 billion bushels
projected by the USDA.
"Earlier this month, the USDA projected the 2009 Argentine
soybean harvest at 1.82 billion bushels, about 37 million less
than the December projection," he said. "The projection of
Argentine exports was lowered by 11 million bushels.
"Continuing dry weather in parts of Argentina appears likely
to further reduce the prospective size of that crop, perhaps
resulting in even less competition for U.S. soybeans in the
export market."
Good said that it now appears likely that U.S. exports will
exceed the current projection of 1.1 billion bushels, resulting
in smaller year-ending stocks if the projected level of domestic
crush is reached.
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"That projection of 1.685 billion bushels is 6.4 percent less than
the crush of last year," he noted. "The crush during the first
quarter of the marketing year was 10 percent below that of a year
earlier.
"Crush during the last three quarters of the year needs to be
only 5.2 percent smaller than the crush of a year earlier in order
to reach the projected level."
As of Jan. 20, the USDA reported cumulative marketing year corn
exports of 617 million bushels, 412 million bushels less than the
total of a year earlier. Through November 2008, the cumulative
Census Bureau export estimate was about 40 million bushels larger
than the USDA export inspections estimate, about the same difference
as a year earlier.
"The decline in shipments so far this year -- through Jan. 15 --
reflects sharp declines in exports to Egypt (70 percent), South
Korea (43 percent), Taiwan (36 percent) and Mexico (21 percent),"
said Good. "Shipments to Japan, the largest U.S. customer, were
about 2 percent larger than shipments of a year ago. Shipments to
Japan accounted for 39 percent of the U.S. total, compared to 23
percent at the same time last year.
"The major factor contributing to the decline in U.S. corn
exports is the large increase in corn production outside the United
States. The USDA currently projects that production at 19.04 billion
bushels, about 900 million bushels larger than production of a year
ago."
Another factor contributing to the decline in U.S. corn exports
may be the sharp increase in feeding of wheat, he added. The USDA
projects that feed use of wheat in the rest of the world during the
current marketing year will be 835 million bushels larger than feed
use of last year.
As of Jan. 15, about 304 million bushels of U.S. corn had been
sold for export but not yet shipped. A year ago, outstanding sales
stood at 773 million bushels. To reach the USDA export projection of
1.75 billion bushels, an additional 790 million bushels of U.S. corn
must be sold for export, an average of 25 million bushels per week.
"Shipments need to average about 35 million bushels per week," he
said. "Shipments have reached or exceeded that level in only three
weeks so far this year, and all of those were last fall."
[Text from file received
from the University
of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental
Sciences]
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