Oil hovers near $64 as earnings, demand weigh

[July 21, 2009]  NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices hovered near $64 a barrel Tuesday as investors weighed improving corporate results against weak crude demand.

By midday in Europe, benchmark crude for August delivery was up 18 cents to $64.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, the contract rose 42 cents to settle at $63.98.

Traders have been cheered by stronger than expected second quarter company earnings, which suggest the U.S. economy is recovering from its worst recession in decades. Crude prices have jumped from $58.78 a barrel two weeks ago.

Some positive economic data is also fueling optimism. The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators improved more than expected in June. It was the third straight month of gains.

"The corporate reports have reinforced the sentiment that the worst is over," said Ben Westmore, an energy analyst with National Australia Bank in Melbourne. "But there haven't been any tangible signs that consumption has turned around."

Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland pointed to the link between rising stock prices and their effect on oil consumption.

"There will be many voices to claim that an equity-led oil rally has nothing to do with the fundamentals," Jakob said. "But as long as the equities are gaining on the belief that the worse is over then it also translates into higher consumer confidence, higher disposable income through the equity pickup and that ultimately impacts oil demand."

Investors will be looking to a weekly inventory report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration on Wednesday for signs that crude demand may be growing.

Traders have been disappointed by evidence that gasoline consumption hasn't jumped during the summer driving season.

Analysts expect the EIA's gasoline inventory numbers to rise 800,000 barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

"Weak gasoline demand is shadowing the oil market," Westmore said. "It's a big downside risk that we don't get drawdowns from the EIA supply data."

"If we don't see a pickup in consumption coming through in the data in the next two or three weeks, it will probably cause a slump in equity and commodity markets."

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery rose 0.96 cent to $1.7990 a gallon and heating oil gained 0.97 cent to $1.6991. Natural gas for August delivery slid 7.3 cents to $3.616 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent prices rose 11 cents to $66.55 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

[Associated Press; By PABLO GORONDI]

Associated Press writer Alex Kennedy in Singapore contributed to this report.

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