Illini hoops 2009-2010

By Greg Taylor

[November 11, 2009]  This Friday night -- on the 13th (can this be good?) -- the Illinois basketball team kicks off a brand-new season. Not since 2004-2005 has there been such a buzz surrounding Illini hoops. Today, we are going to look back, assess the present and try to predict the future as we get ready for another year of orange and blue buckets. 

Looking back

Back in the spring of 2008, fans were calling for head coach Weber's head on a platter, and the Internet "know-it-all" geniuses were quickly compiling lists of potential replacements. Last fall, many an Illini fan went on the record as saying a 16-19 finish in '08-'09 would be nice. Some wondered if Illinois could beat anyone in the Big Ten other than Indiana and Northwestern. These so-called fans couldn't have missed the mark more. 

Last season, Bruce Weber's Fighting Illini significantly exceeded expectations -- rolling to a second-place finish in the Big Ten and returning to the NCAA tournament after a one-year absence. After the train wreck season of 2007-2008 (16-19 record and just five conference wins), Illinois gave its fan base some reasons to be excited about basketball once again. Led by a trio of seniors -- Chet Frazer, Trent Meacham and Calvin Brock -- Illinois won many a game where the talent on the opposing bench appeared to be more athletic and more talented. Weber did a great job of getting the very most he could out of the '08-'09 Illini. And despite finishing poorly and losing four of their last five games, Illinois still had much to feel good about. 

Among the highlights from 2008-2009:

• A 12-1 nonconference record, including a win on the road at Vanderbilt and a ninth straight win over Missouri in the annual border-war game in St. Louis. The victory over Mizzou was an absolute beat-down of a team that made it within a game of the Final Four in March.

• 24 wins -- the most since Dee Brown wore the orange and blue.

• Conference road victories at Purdue and at Ohio State -- two very difficult venues in which to escape with wins.

• An unbelievable comeback on the road at Northwestern -- down 14 points with just under six minutes to play, Illinois refused to quit and won on a Demetri McCamey bank shot with 2.9 seconds to play.

• Season sweeps against rivals Indiana, Purdue and Ohio State.

Assessing the present

So where do the Illini stand right now? you may be asking. Three and a half weeks into the official start of the practice season, Illinois looks to be in pretty good shape. Gone are longtime starters Frazier and Meacham, but the Illini do return three starters in point guard Demetri McCamey, power forward Mike Davis and center Mike Tisdale. These three combined for 100 starts last season and among themselves averaged 33 points each game. Not a bad starting point for coach Weber. 

Several veterans return to the Illini this year as well, including guard Alex Legion, the transfer from Kentucky who never really got going last year, and senior Dominique Keller, who can play the three, four or five positions on the court. Both have the potential to score in bunches for the boys in orange and blue, but both can also be guilty of what we call the "World B. Free" syndrome -- players who never see a shot that is not worth taking. In fact, Weber, when asked about a bad shot taken by Keller in the first exhibition game, responded with this nugget: "That shot was one of the worst shots in the history of the Assembly Hall." Throw in Rich Semrau, Billy Cole and Jeff Jordan, and the bench should be pretty strong in 2009-2010. 

The best part of all in the minds of many revolves around the four new faces on the court for Illinois this season. Joseph Bertrand, Tyler Griffey, Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson represent the best recruiting class to enter Illinois since the fall of 2002, when James Augustine, Dee Brown and Deron Williams made the leap from H.S. hoopster to Big Ten starter. And Weber couldn't be more excited, sharing recently that three of the freshmen (Griffey, Paul and Richardson) are in his "top seven" as of the first of November. We were pretty excited with the play of all four freshmen during the first couple of exhibition games but are especially excited with the all-around game of Richardson, the cat-quick guard from Peoria, and the slash-and-dash game of Paul, the Dwayne Wade look-alike from Gurnee Warren. Griffey looks to be a strong power forward, and Bertrand could develop into a tall defensive stopper who might just remind some of one Stephen Bardo. 

As this article goes to post, four starting spots appear to be locked up -- Davis, McCamey, Richardson and Tisdale (although Mike Davis needs to kick it up a notch), while three players could claim that fifth starting nod -- Keller, Legion or Paul. We look for a nine- or 10-man rotation early, but expect Weber to settle on a regular eight-man rotation by the time the conference season rolls around.

The nonconference schedule starts favorably, but December games at Clemson, at Georgia, in St. Louis vs. Missouri and at the United Center against Gonzaga will test Illinois. A repeat of last season's 12-1 nonconference run would seem unlikely at this venture. And in terms of the Big Ten, the conference has not been better from one through seven since the early 1990s, meaning a repeat of last year's second-place finish could prove difficult at best. 

Predicting the future

What will 2009-2010 bring for Illinois basketball? The honest answer is we have absolutely no idea. However, we do see at least five things happening this year: 

1. Illinois will have a better and more balanced team than 2008-2009, although their season record and conference finish may not reflect such. Look for Illinois to win 10 or 11 nonconference games and finish fourth or fifth in the conference race.

2. Illinois will start at least two freshmen for much of the season, and we see D.J. Richardson winning the Big Ten Freshman of the Year award. We also expect Brandon Paul to have a couple of monster scoring games, and more than once a Kendall Gill comparison will be offered up. And Tyler Griffey will steal minutes from Keller and Semrau and become the first big man off the bench to spot Davis or Tisdale.

3. Illinois will return to the "Big Dance" for the second straight year and will win an NCAA tourney game for the first time since the Dee Brown era (quick -- who was the last team Illinois beat in the NCAA tourney?).

4. The two Mikes will be disappointments in the minds of some -- not because they will play poorly, but because the level of expectation is ridiculously high at this point. Mike Davis will not lead the nation in rebounding and Mike Tisdale will continue to struggle at times, but both will be key contributors on a very balanced team.

5. This team will remind many of the 2002-2003 team (Brian Cook's final year) in that a few returning veterans will play major roles on the team, but the buzz about Illinois will revolve around the freshmen and their impact on the program. Illinois will probably play really well at times and also have a couple of games similar to last season, like the road trip to Minnesota and the home game against Penn State.

My humble advice for all

Don't expect too much too quick. The two "wild cards" for this year appear to be point guard Demetri McCamey and shooter Alex Legion. If they both put regular strong streaks together, we've severely underestimated this year's team -- the sky could literally be the limit. If we see more inconsistency and pine time for these two, a below .500 conference mark isn't out of the question. The word inside the program is no one has matured as much as McCamey in the offseason, and no one can dominate practice offensively like Legion can. The time for talk is over, however, and it is "put up or shut up" time. Are you ready for some hoops? We sure are!

[By GREG TAYLOR]