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In fact, I would put up our own Greg Taylor against any of
the college basketball soothsayers any day of the week. Take last
year, for example. Most writers and basketball pundits had Michigan
State and Purdue at the top of the league and then had a big group
in the middle that included the Illini toward the bottom of that
grouping. Others had us lower. We, on the other hand, do a lot of
research. When we've been to practices or scrimmages, we see a lot
of things that we like. And we know that many times what coach Bruce
Weber wants and what we get on game night are sometimes two entirely
different things. That does not mean that he is never wrong, but it
does mean that he usually has our guys prepared and sometimes we
miss or lose because we just don't execute. Because of these
reasons and many more, we had a good feeling going into the season
last year, even though a lot of people thought we were crazy (we are
-- but not because of that). I told Greg that if we could somehow
find a way to beat Sparty, we would at least compete for the league
crown. Greg thought that we probably would and could win the
conference. We didn't. We lost 63-57 at their place and 74-66 in our
house and that was that. I thought we were due against Purdue and we
swept them. Experts said they were still better than we were, but
that didn't stop me from picking Illinois for second place in the
race. Sometimes we get lucky -- even a blind squirrel finds a nut
once in a while! Not bad for a couple of bloggers, huh?!
This season I think it will be a much tougher assignment for the
good guys in orange. And I'm gonna need more time to analyze the
data before we give you our Big Ten predictions. However, we will
use this space, as always, to give you a quick overview of the
upcoming season and a few of our extended thoughts about things both
on and off the court.
General overview
I'm trying very hard NOT to get caught up in Greg Taylor's
euphoria about the potential of this team. He is so excited about
our new players that he can't even see straight. I guess when you
get as old as I am and senility begins to set in, you get jaded and
cranky. I guess I've been around too long and just seen too many
freshmen look good in the noncon season, only to fade or wilt during
the league tilts. I've seen year after year that you have to have
wily and crafty veterans step up and get the job done, especially
when phantom whistles are coming at you seemingly out of nowhere.
So, I know as well as anyone to never get all hyped up by the new
guys until we get two-thirds of the way through before you get too
giddy. Wait till they make it through first semester at least. See
how they handle all the bumps and bruises. Discover if they can
fight through and play with a slight injury or two. See how they
perform during the cold and flu season. See how they handle the
spotlight and playing in hostile arenas on the road. Then you can
make your judgments.
With all that being said... I am really excited about this
season! What I have witnessed so far is that these Illini are not
just a little better than I thought they would be (and I'm an
optimist); they are way more athletic than anyone had described them
to me up until now. At least they appear to me to be way more
athletic than we have been the last two or three seasons.
That should not be read as a disparaging remark about the last
two editions of the Illini. If you are a loyal reader of this
column, you know that I promoted those guys to the hilt. If you
honestly felt that Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham would play as
well as they did last year, raise your hand?! I knew they'd be good
because I knew how hard they had worked, and I said so right here.
But they even exceeded my expectations... and as I reported here,
those were high. Some thought I was high when I predicted that
Illinois would not only have a good season, but that they would have
a winning record. In this space I predicted 17 wins but went on
record with Greg over the holidays saying that Illinois was good
enough and on track to win 20 or more. Not many had that, but not
many are students of the Illini like Greg is.
Enough of that for now, albeit to say that we both see great
things for Illini basketball on the immediate horizon. We are two
guys who love few things in life more than the adventure of a new
Illini hoops season, and we just don't think this season will
disappoint. That's not to say we won't lose a game or two we should
win. That will probably happen. However, this team will likely win
some they might have lost in the past, and that's part of the reason
we're so excited. Coach Bruce Weber has already weighed in on this
matter. He had T-shirts printed up concerning his expectations -- he
wants our players to RISE UP in 2009-2010!
The schedule
I heard a lot people last season and over the long offseason rip
and degrade Illinois' 2008-09 schedule. It was definitely not the
strongest of all time. However, coming off the train wreck of the
previous season, where I believe we garnered a record of 16-19, a
prudent schedule was in order. So, could we possibly give Jay Price
some kudos? I'm not sure why people want to criticize him. In my
book he could take over scheduling the football team ANY time they
want to give him that assignment.
And yes, I still buy a few tickets each year. So, do I like to
see high-profile teams come into the House of Pain? You're darn
tooting! But do I want a lot of them coming in? Heck, no! And do I
want them coming in and perhaps jeopardizing our chances of winning
20 or more games? No way! There is a fine and intricate balance that
a schedule should always bridge. There should be plenty of chances
for the Men in Orange to play a lot of people the first few weeks to
get the rotation set and see how guys are going to fit in. You need
to discover if any of the upperclassmen have improved enough to get
more minutes and to be effective in the mix. You need to see how the
freshmen respond to the spotlight. Some of them revel in it, some
look like deer in the headlights.
I had a player one time that was a dog in practice. I asked the
team if they wanted me to punish him, by either not playing him or
booting him off the team. Their response to me is that we'll win if
he plays and we want to win. It went against my better judgment. It
went against every grain of coaching acumen I had ever learned, but
they were OK with it, so we went for it. When the spotlights shined
down, this kid was transformed into a super guard... wheeling and
dealing, penetrating and dishing, knocking down 3s, etc., etc. He
was money when games were on the line, and it didn't take me long to
realize why some lower D-I and all D-II schools had backed off on
him... They couldn't have a player like that in their system... We
could and we did... and we won a lot of games. Eventually, that
attitude caught up with him in the classroom, in life, etc. His
teammates always kept him close to the program because they loved
him and he loved them. I passed it off as you learn something new
every day in the world of hoops!
I know I only coached as high as the D-III hoops level (though I
had a D-II chance a few years ago), so some discount my opinion, but
I do understand that a well-thought-out schedule with good balance
can go a long way toward making a successful season. I liked to
space tough, challenging games sandwiched around games that would
either get us ready for the hard ones or help us recover quickly if
we stubbed our toes. Count me as one guy who appreciates coach
Price's attention to the makeup of our team and working the schedule
around, getting us ready for league play and eventually NCAA
postseason play.
After all that, this year's schedule looks to be tougher than
last year's. It won't be the toughest ever. But keep in mind that
after losing Meacham, Frazier and Brock, it will take a while before
our defense gets into a lockdown mode like it did last season.
Whether you liked those players or not, they maximized their
abilities, from what Greg and I saw of them. I've told anyone who
would listen that I think that Bruce Weber does several things
exceedingly well. One is that he develops players so that they are
certainly way better each season than they were the year before, and
number two, he hides individual and team weaknesses as well or
better than any coach I have ever been around.
Highlights of the schedule include the Vegas games versus Utah
and either Bradley or Okie State and the road tilt at Clemson. We
also entertain Vanderbilt at home, and they are always tough no
matter where you play them. I think winning there last year helped
vault us to a successful season, but I'm only a small-town sports
writer, so there you have it.
The Big Ten schedule will always take care of itself, and as the
Bible says, each day has enough trouble of its own! I thought last
year's schedule was a doozy! This season we've got a heckuva stretch
beginning with a home date against Michigan State on Feb. 6. From
there it's off to cheese land for a game with Wisconsin three days
later. On Feb. 14 the Illini host Ohio State, and that is followed
by road action at Purdue and at Michigan. The reward is that we get
to play two of our final three at home, sandwiched around a road
trip to visit Ol' Brutus in Columbus, Ohio! I love the Big Ten home
office!
Greg's take on the schedule
(From Greg Taylor:)
I like our schedule -- especially early in both the nonconference
and conference parts of the schedule. The nonconference slate begins
with four games in the friendly confines of the Assembly Hall,
followed by two neutral games in Las Vegas, where Illinois will be
favored. Games at Clemson and at Georgia will be tough, and Missouri
in St. Louis on Dec. 23 will force the Illini to face an Elite Eight
team from '09. Throw in the annual United Center game against a
tough Gonzaga team and the nonconference schedule ends with its fair
share of challenges.
Of the 13 nonconference games, Illinois should be favored to win
at least 10 or 11, and my guess is an 11-2 record is well within
reach.
Unlike last year, where Illinois opened with back-to-back road
games at Purdue and Michigan, the Illini face a much friendlier
start and should win their first four games -- three of which are at
home. The home games are against Northwestern, Iowa and Penn State,
and the road matchup takes place at Indiana. Last year, Illinois
caught a bad break, facing bottom-feeders Northwestern and Iowa just
once each in the so-called singles. This year, the Illini face
Michigan and Minnesota just once -- tough teams who beat Illinois
last season. Again, I like the conference schedule with just one
issue at hand -- the Big Ten is the best and deepest conference in
the land, and Illinois will struggle to match last year's
second-place finish.
(Back to Jeff Mayfield:)
The lineup
I'm not sure how coach Weber will
draft his starting lineups for the first few games. I got to speak
to him briefly after the opening night win, but I couldn't ask him
all the questions I was conjuring up. I'd like to think that we
would go by matchups. However, reportedly the Illini are having
spirited practices where jobs are on the line daily and weekly. He
started two freshmen against the Cougars of SIU the other night, and
as you could see for yourselves, that worked out rather handsomely.
If you missed it and if I'm recalling it correctly, the lineup was:
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Demetri McCamey
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Brandon Paul
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D.J. Richardson
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Mike Davis
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Mike Tisdale
Can I just say that that unit seemed to jell rather nicely? In
fact, when the horn blew to signal substitute players coming into
the game I think I heard Greg Taylor shouting "NO" from the third
row... He had not yet seen enough of the starters up to that point
in the proceedings and said he would motion to coach Weber when he
was ready for some subs -- just kidding! But they were playing well
together.
If you haven't seen the good guys yet, the rumor about a
slimmed-down McCamey is true. The best way to describe him would be
what Bill Murray said about John Candy in stripes: "He's a lean,
mean fighting machine!" Let's hope he can take over ballgames and
hit decisive shots like the one he hit in Evanston last winter in
the game-winner against the Wildcats. I look to see him get his
teammates involved more and do what is necessary to secure the Ws.
His court vision and awareness seem to be improved, but it just may
be that Bruce riding him has him more focused than ever before.
I was not looking for Brandon Paul to look as polished as he did
last Friday night. He looked like a complete ballplayer. He started
off hot from the outside but later showed his midrange game and his
ability to attack the basket -- something I think Illinois needs to
do a lot more of. He passed the ball pretty well and played pretty
decent defense.
D.J. Richardson had sustained an elbow injury in practice and
told the coaches he didn't think he could go versus SIU-E. I stood
courtside near the coaches as they watched him in warmups, and they
were impressed with his windmill dunk. It was at that point that he
not only got clearance to play but to start. I know that I should
never make comparisons, but he just reminded me of a young Kendall
Gill (those were the days, my friend). He, too, looks to be the
complete package. I liked the way he ran the floor and the team. I
liked how he was looking to make the extra pass. I liked the way he
was knifing his way through nooks and crannies to move the ball to
an open teammate or to create space to get off a shot. I think we're
gonna like him.
Mike Davis rolled a double-double and hopefully some of the
nonsensical talk about him can cease. Quite a few people need to
remember and understand that sometimes our coaches are just talking
and motivating... (and sometimes I'd like to see less of the former
and more of the latter -- my wife says the same about me, too, but
she doesn't pay me six to seven figures either). I didn't see
anything about Mike Davis' game that I don't want to see more of. I
also like what he brings in the form of team chemistry. He was
chosen along with the two starting freshmen to be Illini spokesmen
in the post-game press conference. I loved how he pumped up his new
teammates. I loved how positive he was about our coaches, our
players, our program and our fans. He was showing even more
leadership skills than I remember from last year, and that is good
to see. He seems to be getting healthier, and that will enable him
to be even more active in the paint and around the glass. He gets
mugged and killed in there and doesn't seem to draw nearly as many
calls as he should. I have no doubt that Bruce will let the men in
stripes know more about those assaults as we get deeper in.
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And Mike Tisdale is just solid and dependable just like he was all of last
season. I have to say that he was even more of a pleasant surprise than
he was booked for. If he can claw, fight and scrap for even more loose
balls and caroms and then position himself where he can score when we
need a post touch and conversion, that will be great. You already know
that he is pretty decent from the line. We need him to eat more glass
this year along with those thousands of calories! We also need him to
improve on his post defense and be a bigger physical presence than last
season. The other night he looked like he was moving a little more
fluidly than last year, and if he can improve his shot blocking enough
to make the league's top players alter their shots, that could really
help us. That is a pretty good lineup. It is guard strong. You could
sit one of them if you wanted to for Dominique Keller, because I
think he gives you good minutes and good effort out there,
especially when he is fighting on the boards, and we'll need him to
do more of that this season. I also really like the look of Rich
Semrau. Last year he started strong and seemed to drift. We need him
to bang every night -- play good D and get as many rebounds as he
can yank down. Anything he gives us offensively will be a bonus. I
also like the emerging confidence of Bill Cole. If he can come in
and hit a couple of big shots off the bench, especially when our
offense is in a funk or against some of the tougher zones we'll
face, he can become more than serviceable.
I also thought Jeff Jordan brought more to the table last year
than many want to give him credit for. He seemed solid with the
rock, played tough-nosed defense -- especially on the ball -- and
hit a couple of shots and charity tosses when we needed them. What's
not to like? I think if he can replicate last year's work and even
take a step up this year spotting our guards when they need a rest,
he can be an important cog. I for one am glad he's back. And he'll
return after Tuesday night serving an NCAA two-game suspension
(don't even get me started on this... OK, only in the NCAA can you
get punished for playing, of all things -- your sport --
basketball... I've heard all the explanations, and all I can tell
you is that is bunk!).
I also really like Alex Legion. I know he didn't produce in
'08-'09 (mostly just '09) the way we were all led to believe that he
would. But don't forget, he did not get to play in those noncon
games last year where you develop your confidence and get your touch
and feel. I think he will do that this year and help us win some
games. If he picks up his defense and his intangibles, he can become
an even more valuable performer for us. I look for him to get really
hot a couple of games and win some for us from "downtown!" That
would also really help our depth.
Tyler Griffey also looks like he has the tools to compete if
given the chance. It would be great if we had 15-20 fouls to use up
in the post. Word on press row was that he has looked really good in
the first few weeks in Illini camp.
Joseph Bertrand suffered an injury and has been slow to recover.
All indications are at this point that he is looking at a redshirt
season.
Stan Simpson may be in the coaches' doghouse. Word is that he has
not taken care of business in the classroom (Payne and you students
scoring at home -- see how important school and homework are... you
thought only your parents harped about it). I hope he can right the
ship because I'd really like to see what he can bring to the
party... I hope we get a chance to see that.
And who doesn't love Bubba Chisholm. My son wants him to play
more (keep in mind that he's only 8). What I like about him is that
he doesn't just go in and mop up. He goes in to... PLAY! He is
almost Tayloresque, as if he touches the ball, it's going up!
Greg's take on the lineup
Coach Bruce Weber started three juniors -- Mike Davis, Demetri
McCamey and Mike Tisdale -- all starters for all of last year, and
two freshmen, Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, in the season opener
on Friday night.
I really like this lineup and was really excited to see how well
the starting five played together. Look for senior Dominique Keller
and junior Alex Legion to be given every opportunity to break into
this lineup, and don't count out important minutes from freshmen
Tyler Griffey and sophomore Jeff Jordan.
Weber likes to reward junior and seniors with starting slots, but
Paul and Richardson appear to be just too talented to keep out of
the starting lineup. Look for Legion to really be pushed to
contribute or his minutes could disappear in a hurry.
I'm not as high as some on Rich Semrau but really like the kid
and hope he can find time on the court. Billy Cole is another
feel-good story who could struggle to find the court.
Illinois would seem to be as deep as they have been in the Bruce
Weber era, and only time will tell if Weber will be comfortable with
a deep rotation or not.
(Back to Jeff:)
Intangibles
I know many phrases in college basketball are overused, but I
really do believe that this season will hinge on the area of
intangibles. Illinois must stay healthy. Our front-line players must
play 26-30 games or we will be in trouble. How much trouble will
depend on how far our young players advance and how quickly they do
so. I think that they have the talent and the moxie to advance
quicker than many freshmen we have seen in the past. However, our
league is loaded this year and is overrun with quality: veteran
players who love to exploit teams playing freshmen quality minutes.
And while we're here, I personally am hoping for outstanding
chemistry. I think we've struggled in that department, just from
what little bit I get to see of the team. These guys seem to
genuinely like each other, and that may be just the boost we need to
get over the hump.
How we fare on the road also will determine our long-term
success. We have a few two-game road trips in store for the troops,
and it will be interesting to see how we handle those wild and
woolly crowds, adversity, funky calls and the like. We have had our
share of weird sightings the last couple of seasons. Just when you
think you've seen about everything, a ref rises up and tells you
that Fayson had possession but he didn't have complete
possession... Sorry, wrong sport -- I just threw that in there to
see if you're paying attention. And to say that bizarre things are
gonna happen and you just have to be ready to deal with them is the
understatement of the year.
It will be fun to see how they handle the travel, the weather and
everything else that comes their way over the next five months or
so. One of the many factors that I think Bruce has going for him and
that helps separate him from the crowd of good college coaches, is
how tough-minded he his. I think he tries to instill that in his
players. And I think the more tough-minded he can make this squad,
the better chance they have for success.
Many people forget that Chester Frazier went down at the end of
the season and in many ways killed us in the NCAAs regardless of
which team we were gonna play. Back in the day when I used to do a
lot of scouting, I would always look for the heart of the team I was
checking out. I would look for the head of the snake. Even if you
can't stop the heart or cut off the head... if you can contain it,
you give your team a chance.
These guys in orange and blue have as much athleticism as I have
seen in a few years in our Illinois hoopsters. They should be able
to compete with anyone on our schedule. And I like their chances a
whole bunch.
Greg's take on the intangibles
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Who will replace
Chet Frazier and become both the team leader and the defensive
stopper?
Chet was much maligned during his four-year career, but don't
forget he guarded the other team's top scorer every game and
caused havoc against the likes of Robbie Hummel, Evan Turner,
Talor Battle and Manny Harris. Who will fill this role? Best
guess is freshman D.J. Richardson -- but that could be asking
too much of a first-year player. What about leadership? I really
have no idea, but again, look for Richardson to again develop as
a leader as his career unfolds -- just don't expect too much in
'09-'10.
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Will the chemistry
match last year's or will it be more like '07-'08?
Last year, unlike '07-'08, Illinois played as a team and
regularly beat teams with more raw talent. Weber squeezed as
much as he could from his team, and chemistry was a big reason
why. If Illinois' chemistry is strong, it will go a long way in
helping Illinois win regularly once again.
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How will the health of Illinois affect
this year's team?
Illinois stayed healthy all year until losing Chet Frazier for
the season during a practice injury prior to the Big Ten
conference tournament. To say this loss was devastating would be
an understatement. If Illinois is able to keep their core
healthy for the entire slate of games, I like Illinois' chances
at a good year. If Davis re-injures his ankle or if one of the
freshman slashers goes down for a long period of time, you could
be looking at a different type of year. If someone like McCamey
is lost to injury, the Illini would be forced to play the
walk-on Jordan for up to 30 minutes each game, and their
perimeter depth would be gone.
Final analysis
Greg's take
Season predictions and Greg Taylor have not mixed well lately. I
thought Illinois football was moving toward a major bowl game, and I
thought the Chicago Cubs were a lock for postseason baseball in '09.
Way off the mark on both counts -- so maybe predicting outcomes for
sports teams should be left to someone else.
However, I just can't help myself -- so here we go. I say
Illinois goes 11-2 in the nonconference with losses to Clemson and
Gonzaga, and I say Illinois repeats their 11-7 conference mark from
a year ago. This time, however, 11-7 will get Illinois fourth place
-- not a tie for second. I think Illinois will make some noise in
Indy in the conference tourney (another Saturday, semifinal
appearance), and I think Illinois will play into the second weekend
of the NCAAs for the first time since the magical "Toyota Triangle"
run of 2005.
Jeff's take
If the Illini stay healthy, improve their defensive intensity to
at least match where it's been the last couple of seasons, and if
they stay committed to making extra passes to improve shot
selection, they have all the makings of a very exciting year! The
ability to use dribble penetration and take the ball to the rim was
something missing from our forces for quite some time. When your
offense is in a funk, you need to either get to the free-throw line,
have someone release for an easy run-out or make consistent
defensive stops. This team appears to have the ability to do all
these things.
To give it to you straight, I think it will take Illinois a month
or two to get the defense where Bruce is at least a little more
comfortable with it... It has a ways to go. I personally hope he
makes his rotation a little longer because I think it will help us
play tougher on the defensive end. I think it will help us be better
on the mental toughness scale as well. And I think it is easier to
be better teammates when more people are getting to play (just a
long-held thought there). Not to mention that that gives us more
fouls to use, which will loom large during conference play -- just
trust me on that one.
I also surmise that we will be better from the free-throw line
than we've been in quite some time. Furthermore, I believe that our
shooting percentage will improve this season, taking some pressure
off our half-court offense. We have almost broken its back the last
two years. I only want to see that shot clock winding down when
we're on the road controlling the clock -- on purpose... closing out
a tough win!
So, how good will this Illinois team be? Stands to reason if they
can execute the above-mentioned components, I think this team could
win 20 games and maybe more. I'll look 'em over some more before I
give you my Big Ten thoughts and beyond. If you're just now waking
up, it may be too late already to get on board the bandwagon unless
you have good broker connections or just like dealing with scalpers.
It is time for fans to get behind this team and give them one more
intangible as they fight for truth, justice and the American-Illini
way! My hope is that the Illini will "Rise Up" and have a season for
the ages, but I'd settle for 25 wins, a league title and a chance to
be Sweet 16 again. All we got to do is...
RISE UP!
[By JEFF MAYFIELD,
with contributions from GREG TAYLOR]
Respond to the writer at
jeffmayfield@centralwired.com.
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