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During voting, as cities go out, loyalties will shift. That is where the contest will be won or lost. If Tokyo goes out first, will its supporters swing behind Rio, Madrid or Chicago and by how much for each? And could Madrid stun front-runners Chicago and Rio in the second round, knocking one of them out, with its seemingly solid core of backers?
The variables are such that any city could conceivably win or lose. A few votes either way could decide it. That is especially true this time, with all four cities seen as generally capable of holding the games. Some IOC veterans say there has been no closer contest in recent memory.
To prevent bribery, IOC members aren't allowed to visit the bidding cities -- so they'll be deciding instead based on what they've been told and, for some, their gut instincts, their emotions and personal interests.
Which is where Obama came in, literally. He jetted in Friday morning, for just five hours, to try to tip the outcome Chicago's way.
But Chicago is up against equally charismatic opposition in the shape of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The bearded former union leader makes a compelling case for Rio. Foremost of those is that South America has never before held an Olympics and that the games shouldn't be the exclusive preserve of rich developed countries. That is an argument the other cities can't use because their countries have all held the Olympics before.
Rio appeals to IOC members who believe it's their duty to share the Olympic ideals and pursuit of sporting excellence with all corners of the globe. South America is also an untapped market for Olympic sponsors. The romantic appeal of Rio's beaches and mountains is strong.
[Associated Press;
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