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TransUnion uses a sample of about 10 percent of its database of 270 million consumer credit reports to produce the statistics. The figures point toward a very slow recovery. TransUnion expects the delinquency rate to drift down for the rest of the year, nearing 6.4 percent nationally by the end of 2010. Some states, however, have more trouble ahead. Arizona: The delinquency rate will likely hover between 9.5 percent and 10 percent for the next four quarters, and is forecast to start dipping in mid-2011. California: The worst may be behind it. TransUnion expects the delinquency rate to stay close to its current level through the end 2010 and then show a steady decrease. Florida: Its delinquency rate could hit 16.2 percent by year end, but TransUnion expects late payments to start declining there in 2011. Georgia: There are signs of further trouble, the state now has the fifth-highest delinquency rate at 7.69 percent. Nevada: The rate is expected to start falling by the end of this year, but remain above 10 percent through 2012. "We're seeing that where things were bad, they continue to be bad," Guarrera said. The data shows a stronger correlation between delinquency and falling property values than between delinquency and unemployment. "There is certainly a statistically relevant correlation when we look at unemployment," Guarrera noted. "But home values are a greater driver."
[Associated
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