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"The problem is the drug wasn't studied in enough patients up front to know whether it causes serious cardiovascular events," said Dr. David Kessler, former FDA commissioner and now a professor at University of California at San Francisco. "And chasing that question after millions of prescriptions have been written leads to a lot of confusion."
Since 2009 the FDA has required longer, larger studies of diabetes drugs that include more high-risk patients.
Scientists have tried to get an accurate picture of Avandia's risks by pooling hundreds of thousands of data points from various sources.
The most recent such analysis was published last month and suggested Avandia is more likely to cause strokes and heart-related death than a rival drug, Actos, made by Japan-based Takeda Pharmaceuticals.
The paper's chief author, Dr. David Graham, an FDA scientist who wants the pill banned, estimated as many as 100,000 heart-related problems may have been caused by Avandia.
The study analyzed medical records of more than 225,000 elderly Medicare patients.
Graham first came to prominence for his role in publicizing the risks of the Merck painkiller Vioxx, which was pulled in 2004 from the market after showing links to heart attacks and strokes. He argued that lives could have been saved if the FDA had acted more swiftly.
The legacy of Vioxx and the political firestorm that followed will hang over next week's deliberations.
Lawmakers on Capitol Hill already have painted Avandia as a test of the agency's competence and courage.
Senate Finance Committee ranking Republican Charles Grassley helped kickstart the review of Avandia with an investigation that concluded GlaxoSmithKline tried to downplay the risks of its drug. Last week Grassley said the drug should be pulled from the market.
But former FDA officials say such political prodding hurts the agency's mission.
"Public policy decisions don't get made in a vacuum, and that's a reality of FDA decision making that everyone has to recognize," said Mary Pendergast, a former FDA deputy commissioner who now consults for companies. "But when members of Congress who are not scientists tell the FDA what to decide, I think that's hard for the FDA."
[Associated
Press;
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