SKorean military on high alert ahead of G-20

[November 08, 2010]  SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- The exchange of gunfire across the Koreas' tense border was brief, lasting just a few minutes. But it served as a stark reminder that the Korean peninsula remains a war zone as dozens of world leaders descend on Seoul this week for a global economic summit.

South Korea makes its diplomatic debut Thursday as host of the Group of 20 summit of leaders from the world's major economies. It's a moment of pride for the small Asian nation dubbed the "miracle on the Han" for its feisty, meteoric rise from the ashes of the Korean War to the world's 15th-largest economy.

Yet the skirmish late last month at the border highlights the security challenges Seoul faces in hosting a global event while tensions with nuclear-armed North Korea are still rife.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff says the South Korean military is on its highest state of alert for the summit. Some 50,000 officers will be on duty Thursday and Friday, and rallies are banned within 1.2 miles (two kilometers) of the summit site in Seoul, said Cho Hyun-oh, commissioner-general of the National Policy Agency.

President Lee Myung-bak said Washington and Beijing have warned Pyongyang against any provocative actions.

"I don't think North Korea will carry out such activity when heads of state from around the world are gathered here to discuss the global economy," he told reporters recently.

It's been 60 years since the war began between the communist North and the U.S.-backed South, and there's still no peace on the Korean peninsula. An armistice signed in 1953 maintains the fragile truce monitored by the troops on both sides of the world's most heavily fortified border.

Tensions periodically boil over into violence, especially off the western coast where North Korea disputes the maritime line drawn by U.N. forces in 1953. Their navies have fought three deadly clashes there since 1999.

Perhaps most significantly, a South Korean warship went down late one night in March in frigid waters, killing 46 sailors. Pyongyang has steadfastly denied involvement, but an international panel concluded that a North Korean torpedo sank the warship. If so, it would be the worst military attack on the South since the Korean War.

The incident cast a pall over inter-Korean relations, already at their lowest point in more than a decade, and complicated international efforts to bring North Korea back to negotiations on dismantling its nuclear program.

In recent weeks, however, there have been signs of rapprochement. There are even rumors of negotiations for a summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and President Lee, a man routinely excoriated in Pyongyang's state media as a "traitor" and "reckless human scum."

Lee, since taking office in 2008, has sought to remain calm and consistent in his policy of demanding that Pyongyang demonstrate commitment to denuclearization before receiving much-needed aid.

However, South Korea offered an olive branch last month with a shipment of rice as part of an $8.5 billion package of aid to help North Koreans struggling from flooding.

"North Korea is practically one of the poorest countries in the world," Lee said last week. "North Korea can receive assistance if it joins the international community."

The two Koreas also allowed hundreds of Korean families divided since the war to meet at a North Korean resort -- tearful, emotional reunions that underline the personal toll the division has taken.

And North Korea, after largely closing its borders to outsiders after Kim reportedly suffered a stroke in August 2008, is exhibiting a new policy of openness.

Foreign journalists were allowed to cover the nation's massive military parade celebrating the 65th anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party -- and heir apparent Kim Jong Un's international debut.

Still, there's no movement on restarting the disarmament-for-aid talks with North Korea, which has tested two nuclear bombs since 2006, a senior South Korean government official said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Analysts say North Korea may seek to hurry the process along with a few well-timed shots or missiles.

Radio Free Asia reported last week that North Korea had formed a special unit to plot a provocation that would call attention to tensions on the peninsula. The report by the U.S. government-funded station cited an unidentified source in China.

Late last month, North Korea's military warned of "merciless physical retaliation" for Seoul's "rejection" of a proposal to hold military talks, state media reported.

Hours later, two rounds flew across the border from North Korea. South Korean troops fired back. The U.N. Command is investigating.

"North Korea could take actions ahead of the G-20 summit to show that military tension grips the Korean peninsula," Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean affairs at Seoul's Dongguk University. "But North Korea also could make conciliatory gestures toward South Korea to show it wants peace."

Kim and others say a bold attack like the 1987 bombing of a South Korean airliner -- allegedly devised by North Korea to sabotage the 1988 Seoul Olympics -- was unlikely.

Pyongyang will be mindful that among the leaders visiting Seoul is Hu Jintao, president of China, the nation that buttressed North Korea with troops during the war and remains the country's biggest benefactor, analysts said.

"I don't anticipate an act of provocation," said Ralph A. Cossa, president of the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum CSIS think tank. "In part because Hu is in Seoul but mainly because it would undercut Pyongyang's current charm offensive, which is aimed first and foremost at gaining aid from the South by putting pressure on the Lee administration and second at keeping Chinese aid flowing."

[Associated Press; By JEAN H. LEE]

Associated Press writers Kwang-tae Kim and Seulki Kim contributed to this report.

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