Analysis: Overseas ties could be in for change

[October 25, 2010]  WASHINGTON (AP) -- A big Republican win in Nov. 2 congressional elections could stymie President Barack Obama's attempts to reset relations with Russia while opening the way for a new bipartisan toughness toward China.

Despite scant attention to foreign relations in the campaign, the election is likely to have a significant effect on that front.

A stronger Republican voice in Congress could push the president to slow his plans to begin withdrawing from Afghanistan in July, badger him to be even tougher on Iran over its suspected nuclear weapons program and ease U.S. pressure on Israel in negotiations with the Palestinians.

While the U.S. entanglement with Iran has been prominent, simmering conflicts with China probably are most open to quick U.S. action and with stronger Republican backing after the vote.

Republicans traditionally take a tougher line on trade issues and imbalances and those clearly are central to relations with Beijing.

"There's a conviction that the U.S. must respond to a whole range of Chinese provocations," said Jessica Matthews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

China is in the doghouse not only with the United States, but with many of its global trading partners over Beijing's routine deflation of the value of its currency. That practice makes Chinese goods cheaper abroad and inflates the price of imported goods in China.

That's partly to blame for the outsized U.S. trade deficit with the Chinese and an easy target for politicians in Washington who are frustrated by their inability to reinvigorate the American economy.

"This is about money, not ideology," said Wayne Merry, senior associate at the American Foreign Policy Council and a former U.S. diplomat.

"The notion is becoming accepted that protectionism is no longer a dirty word," Merry said. "A year ago that was heresy. A year from now that will be mainstream. He predicted Washington would begin to impose some kind of trade penalties on Beijing for manipulating its currency.

Also likely to win support among Republicans in the new Congress is the Obama administration's more forward-leaning stance on strategic interests in shipping lanes near China. Americans also have voiced displeasure with Beijing's aggressiveness over disputed islands in those waters.

But Obama's foreign policy could take a battering over relations with Russia. Many conservatives have not shed their Cold War distrust of Moscow, making it even more difficult for the administration to win Senate ratification of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) signed by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in April.

While it seems unlikely Republicans will seize a majority in the Senate, where they are currently outnumbered 58-41, the party could considerably close the gap. The Senate must ratify all treaties and that requires 67 affirmative votes.

That may be unattainable in the next Congress, but the interim lame duck session that begins 13 days after the election offers a chance for ratification. That session will include senators who have lost their seats Nov. 2 and may be less politically motivated.

The Russians have made it clear that Obama's vow to improve relations, while theoretically beneficial to both countries, hangs on his ability to win ratification of the New START treaty. The pact calls for big reductions in nuclear weapons.

Even though Washington is engaged in two wars -- in Iraq and Afghanistan -- those expensive and bloody ventures have drawn little attention in this election year. While Democrats are losing patience with the Afghanistan conflict, now in its 10th year, Obama will probably find backing for his war policies from Republicans and pressure to limit or put off plans to begin withdrawing in July. Republicans normally take a more aggressive line on issues of war and peace.

The Iraq war, barring an outbreak of extreme violence, has faded from the American consciousness as the last combat forces left in the summer and all troops are scheduled to be gone by the end of next year.

In the Middle East, strong Republican gains probably would cost Obama some maneuvering room in his sponsorship of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. The president has put considerable pressure on the Israelis -- particularly to stop their West Bank and Jerusalem settlement building projects.

Even so, Obama may find that his dealings with Iran and its suspected nuclear weapons program gain ground from the improbable and quiet convergence of national interests that Arabs and Israel share concerning Iran.

Israeli feels directly threatened by Iran, whose leaders have said the Jewish state should be eliminated. Arabs are deeply concerned that a nuclear-armed Iran would upend the balance of power in the Middle East.

The intersection of those worries could create greater pliability on both sides and grease the negotiating process with the Palestinians, who rely heavily on fellow Arabs for backing.

Regardless of how foreign policy issues eventually play out after the November vote, Obama won't find refuge from a gridlocked and unfriendly Congress by turning to international affairs.

Other presidents have taken that path in similar circumstances. The economy, however, is going to force the president's focus.

[Associated Press; By STEVEN R. HURST]

Steven R. Hurst has covered international relations for 30 years.

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