Friday, September 24, 2010
 
sponsored by

'Obama seats' in Statehouse subject to voter swings

Send a link to a friend

[September 24, 2010]  SPRINGFIELD -- This Nov. 2, the most vulnerable lawmakers up for re-election in the General Assembly are Democrats in so-called "Obama seats."

Hardware"Obama seats" are seats that were picked up by Democrats during the 2006 and 2008 elections when independent voters turned out in droves for Democratic challengers as the nation turned toward the 2008 presidential election of Barack Obama. Many of these lawmakers were swept into office in districts that usually vote Republican. This year, it appears the political tide has changed to favor Republicans, and many of those Democrats are in danger of losing their seats.

Kent Redfield, a professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield, said being a newer incumbent to the General Assembly makes these candidates easier to pick off by Republican challengers.

"If you've only been in office two years, then you haven't had a chance to take full advantage of being an incumbent by leveraging your incumbency to build kind of generalized support," Redfield said. "You don't have the advantage of a three- or four-term incumbent, and you're weighed down by the huge budget mess."

A prime example is state Rep. Jehan Gordon, D-Peoria, in the 92nd House District. Gordon was elected to the Illinois House in 2008 after U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, who held the seat until 2007, won his bid for Illinois' 18th Congressional District.

Gordon is a top target for House Republicans this year. Although the district traditionally votes Democratic, Republicans believe the current anti-incumbent mood among voters will help them win the seat.

But Gordon said she doesn't fall into the same category as entrenched incumbents.

"I don't feel that I'm one of those folks that people are extremely angry at," Gordon said. "Do I think that people are extremely angry and frustrated with the system? Yeah. So am I. I'm just as frustrated as they are, because I walked into this system wanting to do good things. But it seems by and large the only things I've been able to do since I've been down there is put out fires."

But Jim Montelongo, Gordon's Republican opponent, who lives in Peoria, said Gordon is just as much a part of the problem as the rest of the Democratic incumbents in the General Assembly.

"She chose not to balance the budget; she walked away from that," Montelongo said. "She could have said something in the previous nine months before the vote, but she did nothing."

But Gordon said pushing for budget reform just didn't make sense this year.

"When I think about the votes that I take, when I thought about, OK, yeah, I could hold out, I could let government shut down, and then we'd really be able to get in here and show them," Gordon said. "Who does that help? The real question is, who does it hurt? It hurts the very people who sent me down there to try and get some solutions to this thing. Do I feel like we're going to get some solutions to these things? Absolutely. Do I think it's going to come overnight? Absolutely not."

[to top of second column]

In the Chicago suburbs, new state Sen. Michael Bond, D-Grayslake, is facing stiff competition in the race for the 31st House District. Bond was elected in 2006 after longtime Republican state Sen. Adeline Jay Geo-Karis was defeated in the Republican primary by Sue Simpson. The 31st District traditionally leans Republican, but Bond defeated Simpson.

Bond said the race is gaining a lot of attention in the area.

"We've never had more energy or enthusiasm for a campaign in Lake County," Bond said. "I have a lot of folks who have followed in my footsteps, and they're now county commissioners. I have dozens of people who ran for school board. I think there's just a level of energy up there in Lake County and particularly the northern part of the county that we haven't seen in a long, long time."

Opponent Suzi Schmidt, a Republican from Lake County, has a long history with the community, serving as chairwoman of the Lake County Board since 2000.

Schmidt said she is running for a seat in the Statehouse because she feels she can do some good in Springfield.

Water

"I really think that I have something to offer the state via all my years of experience," Schmidt said. "So that's why I decided to get involved at a different level. I can stay in my nice cushy job at the county because it's a great job. But I've done my job there. So now it's time to maybe rock the boat a little bit and see if I can do something to help the state out."

If all the Democratic incumbents who hold "Obama seats" lose this November, Republicans could get very close to the magic number needed to take back the Illinois House and could cost Senate Democrats their super-majority. To do this, Republicans would have to gain 12 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate.

However, Redfield said that prospect is highly unlikely, despite current public criticism against incumbents and longtime Speaker of the House Michael Madigan, D-Chicago.

"To have everything break right to end up with the Republicans taking control of the House is still a long shot," Redfield said. "But I think you can't look at the way that the speaker has dealt or not dealt with issues without coming to the conclusion that he's been very concerned."

[Illinois Statehouse News; By JENNIFER WESSNER]

< Top Stories index

Back to top


 

News | Sports | Business | Rural Review | Teaching and Learning | Home and Family | Tourism | Obituaries

Community | Perspectives | Law and Courts | Leisure Time | Spiritual Life | Health and Fitness | Teen Scene
Calendar | Letters to the Editor