Quinn, Brady debate expected to avoid details

[October 23, 2010]  CHICAGO -- Voters have been bombarded with advertising and campaign mailers in a heated race for governor, but on Wednesday they will have the chance to see Gov. Pat Quinn and Republican state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington debate for the first time.

The Union League Club of Chicago will play host to the first public debate between the two candidates for governor.

It will be a pivotal moment in a race that has seen a substantial back-and-forth over the peripheral policies like the administration's early prisoner release program and the senator's conservative views on women's issues. Such campaigning has led to low expectations from political observers like Paul Green, director of the Roosevelt University School of Policy Studies.

"You can expect a lot of adjectives and adverbs, but not many nouns," Green said. "Neither man can talk about the reality of what we are facing, the dire situation the state is in, so they avoid the subject."

The back-and-forth will continue on Wednesday, but the debate will center on the issues at the forefront of voters' minds -- the economy and state budget. Those issues will highlight the main differences between and evoke the passions of each candidate, according to University of Chicago political science professor John Brehm.

"Quinn will talk about the irrationality of Brady's hopes to cut taxes and spending enough to balance the budget," he said. "Brady will be talking about the problems of the budget, taxes and fees, which are largely a Chicago issue, ... and Quinn's push for higher taxes," Brehm said.

Quinn will have the advantage of a friendly crowd drawn from his Democratic base in Chicago. But the question of voter enthusiasm is one he will have to answer on Wednesday. Illinois, like most of the country, has seen a rise in Republican enthusiasm heading into the 2010 elections, while Democrats have seen a decline from 2008's historic election of President Barack Obama.

It is Quinn's job at the top of the ticket to inspire Democratic supporters as the campaign enters its final month. A spotlight on the economy could help Quinn's ability to connect with voters. But Green said the governor's campaign has suffered from a lack of focus.

"Quinn needs a theme for his campaign," he said. "He's been throwing punches in all directions, but he hasn't had a theme and it may be too late."

Brady has a narrow advantage over Quinn in the polls, thanks largely to his 20 percent lead in downstate Illinois. The Republican needs support from the Chicago suburbs if he hopes to occupy the governor's mansion in January.

Quinn's approval ratings are low in the suburbs, but the voters in the region generally lean toward more socially liberal Republicans, like U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kirk, who currently represents the 10th District in the U.S. House of Representatives. Brady's best chances will also be to focus on the economy, Brehm said, rather than the social conservatism that has helped him poll well in downstate Illinois.

"I expect Quinn to rehash social issues like abortion," Brehm said. "And suburban voters may well care, but the main issue is the economy and the question of insolvency ... and their own pocketbooks."

Green believes Brady's debate strategy could be simpler still.

"Brady just needs to not make a mistake," Green said.

Wednesday's debate represents only the second time the two candidates have met since the end of the legislative session. They squared off for a private debate in front of the Commercial Club of Chicago on Sept. 21. Both expressed mutual respect following the forum before issuing criticism of one another's tax policies and special interest ties.

Brady and Quinn will meet two more times before the Nov. 2 election. They will square off in Carbondale on Oct. 14 before returning to Chicago on Oct. 20 for a debate sponsored by the League of Women Voters.

[Illinois Statehouse News; By BILL McMORRIS]