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Blackwell helped conduct the trials of Avastin in breast cancer and believes the FDA is "moving the goal posts" on the drug's effectiveness, which could discourage drugmakers from pursuing new drugs.
"If the label is withdrawn, we will not see a new drug for metastatic breast cancer for another decade," said Blackwell, who directs Duke's breast cancer program.
The panel will hear from a handful of patients whose cancer has been in remission since using Avastin. But some doctors say such anecdotes are not scientifically sound and ignore the vast majority of patients.
"You've got a patient who is on a drug and they're doing well, but in any individual case you can't say what caused it," said Dr. Frederick Tucker, a cancer specialist based in Fredericksburg, Va. "The difficult point to make is that there are many patients who were on the drug that didn't do well, and so they're not here to give their testimony."
Avastin was Roche's best-selling drug last year, with global sales of $6.8 billion. Use of the drug has already waned in the U.S., with sales falling 14 percent last quarter. Most of the decline was attributed to reduced use for breast cancer.
Since Avastin is approved for other cancers, doctors will still be able to prescribe it "off-label," for breast cancer, even if it loses that indication.
But analysts expect insurers to eventually drop coverage of the drug, making it unaffordable for most patients.
A year's treatment with Avastin can run more than $100,000, when infusion charges are included. Roche caps spending at $57,000 per year for patients who meet certain financial criteria.
The FDA is legally barred from considering cost when making decisions about drugs. But Lyman and other doctors say the issue will soon become unavoidable and FDA must set clear standards for cancer drugs now.
"There are literally hundreds of children of Avastin coming down the pike that will be very pricey and we need to have clarity about the expectation for benefit and harm," Lyman said.
[Associated
Press;
Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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