 On Tuesday, legislators began the process of crafting a new state
budget by trying to agree on just how much Illinois has to spend.
It's the first time in years lawmakers will use actual numbers -- a
new law requires it along with spending caps. But finding a price
tag for the new spending plan is proving difficult.Quinn's budget
is based on $30.9 billion in revenue. The governor said last month
he wants to spend closer to $35.4 billion in 2012. Quinn is
expecting some federal money to come to Illinois that is not
included in the revenue estimates.
But the legislative Commission on Government Forecasting and
Accountability issued its own report that is more than a billion
dollars more optimistic than the governor's estimate. COGFA puts the
return from taxes, fees and the lottery at $32.1 billion.
The commission's Dan Long said COGFA expects a better return on
the newly passed personal and corporate income tax increases than
Quinn's budget office estimates. Long said his commission is looking
at a "lag" this summer that could boost the amount of money Illinois
collects in the next fiscal year, beginning in July.
The differences may be a matter of when Illinois counts the cash,
but those differences could become a major point of contention as
lawmakers look to trim state spending this spring. In other words,
lawmakers may see an extra billion dollars as the best way to avoid
unpopular cuts to schools or social services.
State Rep. John Bradley, D-Marion, who is in charge of finding
the "true price tag" for the next state budget, is already trying to
tamp down that kind of thinking.
"We're going to be very cautious of estimates of revenue that
have a chance of actually not being met by the state," said Bradley.
"So it's possible that (we) could take an even more conservative
approach (than either Quinn's budget office or COGFA)."
Bradley is not guessing what the Legislature's bottom-line number
may be, though he said he hopes to agree with Republicans on that
number in the next few days.
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When lawmakers decide how much the state will have to spend next
year, they also will have to decide what to do with anything that
may be left over. State Rep. Ed Sullivan, R-Mundelein, said Illinois
has some serious needs, and a billion dollars could be a big help.
"What happens if we have 'X’ amount of dollars plus some?"
Sullivan asked. "If our revenues exceed what we declare to be the
spending authority, ... where should we put that extra money?"
Sullivan is the first to worry about a surplus at the Illinois
Capitol in years. The state has struggled through underfunded
budgets for the past several years. For two years in a row,
lawmakers simply gave Quinn lump-sum budgets and told him to manage
the spending. The process to change that this year has led to the
discussions in Springfield.
But even after lawmakers decide on a final budget price tag,
there will not be firm answers, according to economist J. Fred
Giertz with the University of Illinois. He told lawmakers that no
one has a crystal ball, and the guesses from Quinn and COGFA are
just that: guesses.
"Both are very reasonable, and they're dealing with a very, very
difficult kind of situation," Giertz said. "And it's going to take
some time to work that out. So this year there is going to be some
degree of uncertainty."
[Illinois
Statehouse News; By BENJAMIN YOUNT]
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