A look at the NL Central race

[March 23, 2011]  (AP) -- The six-team NL Central division is always hotly contested and this year should be no different.

CENTRAL

Cincinnati Reds

2010: 91-71, first place, lost in divisional round.

Manager: Dusty Baker (4th season).

He's Here: SS Edgar Renteria, OF Fred Lewis, OF Jeremy Hermida, LHP Dontrelle Willis.

He's Outta There: RHP Aaron Harang, SS Orlando Cabrera, LHP Arthur Rhodes, OF Laynce Nix, OF Willie Bloomquist.

Projected Lineup: CF Drew Stubbs (.255, 22, 77, 30 SBs in 36 tries), 2B Brandon Phillips (.275, 18, 59), 1B Joey Votto (.324, 37, 113), 3B Scott Rolen (.285, 20, 83), RF Jay Bruce (.281, 25, 70), LF Jonny Gomes (.268, 18, 86), SS Paul Janish (.260, 5, 25 in 82 games), C Ramon Hernandez (.297, 7, 48).

Rotation: RH Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31 ERA in 12 games back from elbow surgery), RH Homer Bailey (4-3, 4.46, 19 games), RH Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88, 33 games), LH Travis Wood (5-4, 3.51, 17 games), RH Mike Leake (8-4, 4.23, 24 games).

Key Relievers: RH Francisco Cordero (6-5, 3.84 ERA, 40 saves in 48 chances), LH Aroldis Chapman (2-2, 2.03, 15 games), RH Nick Masset (4-4, 3.40, 82 games), LH Dontrelle Willis (1-2, 4.98 in 9 games with Detroit, 1-1, 6.85 in six games with Arizona), RH Logan Ondrusek (5-0, 3.68, 60 games).

Hot Spots: SS, top of rotation, late relief. Janish is expected to get the majority of playing time at shortstop, but World Series MVP Edgar Renteria signed in the offseason and could play a lot if Janish struggles. Volquez got a late start in spring training because of visa problems. RH Johnny Cueto will start the season on the DL with a sore shoulder, giving Bailey a bigger role at the outset. Chapman and his 105-mph fastball will be in the bullpen from the outset, with the Reds hoping he can help fill Rhodes' setup role.

Outlook: The defending NL Central champions brought their roster back virtually intact and spent more than $150 million in the offseason to lock up their young players long-term. If they continue to develop and they stay reasonably healthy, the Reds ought to be in contention in a division that was the NL's weakest last year. Bruce and Stubbs struggled early in the season, then became key components in the Reds' closing run to their first playoff berth in 15 years. Baker thinks the experience of winning the division title and reaching the playoffs, where they were swept by Philadelphia, should give them the confidence to try for another.

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St. Louis Cardinals

2010: 86-76, second place.

Manager: Tony La Russa (16th season).

He's Here: OF Lance Berkman, SS Ryan Theriot, INF Nick Punto, RHP Miguel Batista, C Gerald Laird.

He's Outta There: SS Brendan Ryan, RHP Brad Penny, LHP Dennys Reyes, RHP Jeff Suppan, RHP Blake Hawksworth, Util Felipe Lopez, C Jason LaRue, 3B Pedro Feliz, Util Joe Mather, INF Aaron Miles, C Matt Pagnozzi, OF Randy Winn, RHP Mike MacDougal.

Projected Lineup: 2B Skip Schumaker (.265, 5, 42, 16 SBs), CF Colby Rasmus (.276, 23, 66, 12 SBs), 1B Albert Pujols (.312, 42, 118, 39 doubles, 115 runs, 103 BB), LF Matt Holliday (.312, 28, 103, 45 doubles), RF Lance Berkman (.248, 14, 58 with Astros, Yankees), C Yadier Molina (.262, 6, 62), 3B David Freese (.296 in 240 ABs, 4, 36), SS Ryan Theriot (.270, 2, 29, 20 SBs with Cubs, Dodgers).

Rotation: RH Chris Carpenter (16-9, 3.22, 179Ks in 235 IP), RH Jake Westbrook (10-11 overall, 4-4, 3.48 in 12 starts with STL), LH Jaime Garcia (13-8, 2.70, 3rd in NL rookie of year voting), RH Kyle Lohse (4-8, 6.55 in 18 starts), RH Kyle McClellan (1-4, 2.27 as setup man).

Key Relievers: RH Ryan Franklin (6-2, 3.46, 27/29 saves), RH Jason Motte (4-2, 2.24, 2 saves, 54 Ks in 52 1-3 IP), RH Mitchell Boggs (2-3, 3.61), LH Trever Miller (0-1, 4.00), LH Brian Tallet (2-6, 6.40 with Toronto), RH Miguel Batista (1-2, 3.70 with Nationals).

Hot Spots: 1B, RF, SS, 3B, rotation depth. Pujols' contract status could be a distraction -- and affect his play -- after he cut off negotiations at the start of spring training possibly leading him toward trying free agency. But Pujols, his teammates and La Russa scoffed at the idea it will be an issue this season. The 35-year-old Berkman is set for regular OF duty for first time since 2004 and is coming off career-worst offensive numbers while struggling with knee woes in '10. La Russa is hopeful he can play in two-thirds of games and make the routine plays. Theriot is a regular at SS again after shifting to 2B last year. At 3B, Freese is coming off surgery to both ankles. McClellan promoted from relief role to fifth starter as replacement for 20-game winner Adam Wainwright, who underwent reconstructive elbow surgery earlier in the spring. Lohse has totaled 10 wins the last two seasons while hampered by forearm injury that required surgery last year.

Outlook: If Berkman can regain his stroke the Cardinals will have a much deeper lineup card anchored by three-time MVP Pujols and Holliday, and that takes youngsters Rasmus and Freese out of high-pressure spots. Offense was to blame for last year's fade that left them five games back of surprising Central champion Cincinnati and out of the postseason for the third time in four years. They're likely to need more production given the pitching staff shakeup made necessary by Wainwright's season-ending injury. McClellan looked ready for his shot as Wainwright's replacement with an 0.53 ERA his first four spring starts and Lohse, a 15-game winner in 2008, also finally appears healthy. The 38-year-old Franklin is 65 for 72 in save chances the last two seasons with a pitch-to-contact style that could be tested given the Cardinals' willingness to sacrifice defense for scoring.

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Milwaukee Brewers

2010: 77-85, third place.

Manager: Ron Roenicke (1st season).

He's Here: RH Zack Greinke, RH Shaun Marcum, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, RH Takashi Saito, LF Brandon Boggs, C Wil Nieves, RH Sean Green, 1B Mark Kotsay.

He's Outta There: Manager Ken Macha, RH Todd Coffey, RF Joe Inglett, RH Carlos Villanueva, SS Alcides Escobar, RH Jeremy Jeffress, CF Lorenzo Cain, RH Dave Bush, LH Chris Capuano, LH Doug Davis, RH Trevor Hoffman, C Gregg Zaun.

Projected Lineup: 2B Rickie Weeks (.269, 29, 83), RF Corey Hart (.283, 31, 102), LF Ryan Braun (.304, 25, 103), 1B Prince Fielder (.261, 32, 83), 3B Casey McGehee (.285, 23, 104), CF Carlos Gomez (.247, 5, 24, 18 SB in 97 games), SS Yuniesky Betancourt (.259, 16, 78 with Kansas City), C Jonathan Lucroy (.253, 4, 26).

Rotation: RH Zack Greinke (10-14, 4.17 ERA with Kansas City), RH Yovani Gallardo (14-7, 3.84, 200 Ks), RH Shaun Marcum (13-8, 3.64 with Toronto), LH Randy Wolf (13-12, 4.17), LH Chris Narveson (12-9, 4.99).

Key Relievers: RH John Axford (8-2, 2.48 ERA, 24/27 saves), RH Takashi Saito (2-3, 2.83 in 56 games with Braves), RH Kameron Loe (3-5, 2.78), RH LaTroy Hawkins (0-3, 8.44 in 18 games before shoulder injury), LH Zach Braddock (1-2, 2.94), LH Manny Parra (3-10, 5.02 ERA in 42 games -- 16 starts).

Hot Spots: Rotation, bullpen, injuries. The Brewers made two of the biggest offseason trades, acquiring Greinke and Marcum, but maybe there was too much hope, too soon. Greinke broke a rib playing basketball in the offseason and Marcum has been slowed by a stiff neck and shoulder. Greinke is expected to start on the DL and general manager Doug Melvin said he was again looking for pitching help, a familiar refrain for Brewers fans. Injuries to Hart (left oblique) and Lucroy (broken pinkie finger) put their opening-day availability in jeopardy, too. The bullpen is very young since Hoffman retired and the team parted ways with Coffey.

Outlook: Roenicke, who spent 11 years in the Angels organization, received upgrades in the starting rotation that predecessor Macha never did. But, there's not much depth behind the starting five and if Greinke's injury lingers, the Brewers' optimism could fade quickly. Weeks signed a new $38.5 million, four-year contract in the offseason, leaving all the core players outside of Fielder signed or under team control through at least 2012. Fielder and the Brewers are on the same page, too. He'll make $15.5 million this year before hitting free agency with agent Scott Boras. In between, the Brewers have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league and certainly enough firepower to keep things interesting in the NL Central, but injuries and questions about the defense may keep them from reaching the postseason again after their trip in 2008 snapped a 26-year drought.

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Houston Astros

2010: 76-86, fourth place.

Manager: Brad Mills (2nd season).

He's Here: SS Clint Barmes, 2B Bill Hall, LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP J.A. Happ, 1B Brett Wallace.

He's Outta There: RHP Matt Lindstrom, RHP Felipe Paulino, INF Geoff Blum, 1B Lance Berkman, RHP Roy Oswalt.

Projected Lineup: CF Michael Bourn (.265, 2, 38, 52 SBs), LF Carlos Lee (.246, 24, 89), RF Hunter Pence (.282, 25, 91), 1B Brett Wallace (.222, 2, 13 in 51 games), 3B Chris Johnson (.308, 11, 52), C Humberto Quintero (.234, 4, 20), SS Clint Barmes (.235, 8, 50 with Colorado), 2B Bill Hall (.247, 18, 46 with Boston).

Rotation: RH Brett Myers (14-8, 3.14), LH Wandy Rodriguez (11-12, 3.60), LH J.A. Happ (6-4, 3.40 with Philadelphia and Astros), RH Bud Norris (9-10, 4.92), RH Nelson Figueroa (5-3, 3.22).

Key Relievers: RH Brandon Lyon (6-6, 3.12, 20 saves, 79 games), RH Jeff Fulchino (2-1, 5.51), RH Wilton Lopez (5-2, 2.96, 68 games), LH Ryan Rowland-Smith (1-10, 6.75 as a starter).

Hot Spots: 1B, C and back end of rotation. Wallace earned the starting job at first base this spring, but the Astros will need him to improve on last year's performance if he expects to stay in the lineup. He hit just .222 in 51 games after being acquired by the Astros in July. The Astros absorbed a major blow when catcher Jason Castro suffered a season-ending knee injury in spring training. The Astros also need to see more from Happ and Norris to shore up the rotation.

Outlook: Houston needs strong starts from Pence and Lee after their poor beginnings last season helped doom the Astros. Pence won a $6.9 million salary in arbitration and the 27-year-old will need to earn it with his play and leadership on this young team in its first full season without stars Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. The Astros are hoping to build on a solid finish to last season where they went 59-52 while relying on young talent. A big question is how Johnson will follow up a stellar rookie season after being called up in June. Hall and Barmes are new up the middle -- the Astros believe Hall is an upgrade at second base and they're also hoping he adds some punch to their offense after they finished last season near the bottom of almost every statistical category. The top two spots in the rotation are solid in Myers, who matched a career high in wins, and Rodriguez, who had a 2.11 ERA after the All-Star break.

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Chicago Cubs

Manager: Mike Quade (1st full season).

2010: 75-87, fifth place.

He's Here: RHP Matt Garza, 1B Carlos Pena, RHP Kerry Wood, RHP Braden Looper, INF Augie Odeja, RHP Todd Wellemeyer.

He's Outta There: OF-1B Xavier Nady, LHP Tom Gorzelanny, OF Sam Fuld.

Projected lineup: 2B Jeff Baker (.272, 4, 21) or Blake DeWitt (.250, 4, 22 in 53 games with Cubs), SS Starlin Castro (.300, 3, 41), CF Marlon Byrd (.293, 12, 66), 3B Aramis Ramirez (.241, 25, 83 in 124 games), 1B Carlos Pena (.196, 28, 84 with Tampa Bay), LF Alfonso Soriano (.258, 24, 79), RF Tyler Colvin (.254, 20, 56), C Geovany Soto (.280, 17, 53).

Rotation: RH Ryan Dempster (15-12, 3.85 ERA, 215 1-3 IP, 208 Ks), RHP Carlos Zambrano (11-6, 3.33 ERA, 36 games and 20 starts; 8-0 over last 11), RH Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA, no-hitter with Tampa Bay), RHP Randy Wells (8-14, 4.26, 209 hits allowed), RH Carlos Silva (10-6, 4.22 in 21 starts) or RH Andrew Cashner (2-6, 4.80 in 53 relief appearances).

Key Relievers: RH Carlos Marmol (2-3, 2.55 ERA, 38 saves in 43 chances), RH Kerry Wood (1-4, 6.30 ERA in 23 games with Cleveland; 2-0, 0.69 in 24 games with Yankees), LH Sean Marshall (7-5, 2.65 in 80 appearances), LH John Grabow (1-3, 7.36 in 28 games), RH Jeff Samardzija (2-2, 8.38 in 7 games, 3 starts), LH James Russell (1-1, 4.96 in 57 games).

Hot Spots: Leadoff, 1B, and No. 5 starter. Can Baker or DeWitt get it started at the top of the lineup if they platoon? Cubs hoping Pena, signed to a one-year deal, can go above the Mendoza Line and add left-handed power and a great glove at first. Silva, who got off to a quick start last year, had a rough finish after being bothered by heart and elbow problems. He's scuffled this spring and scrapped with Ramirez, but earlier said he shouldn't have to compete for a spot.

Overview: Far out of the race last season and with no pressure, the Cubs played well in going 24-13 after third-base coach Quade took over on an interim basis following Lou Piniella's abrupt retirement. Garza is being counted on to be a stopper and he's struggled this spring. And which Zambrano will show up? The one who was sent to anger management counseling last year after another emotional outburst -- this one directed at teammates -- or the new and calmer one this spring? Zambrano went 8-0 down the stretch last season, helping Quade get the job on a full-time basis. No sophomore slumps please for the three Cs from last season, all of whom played well as rookies in spurts -- Cashner, Colvin and Castro. Also, how much does Soriano have left in left? His shaky fielding in the outfield is a concern, but not as much if he can add to his 24 homers from last season. What the Cubs really need as they try to end their 102-year World Series title drought is a fast start in the cold weather, especially from their two corner power hitters in Ramirez, slowed by injuries last season, and Pena. Wood, a fan favorite, was brought back on a $1.5 million contract to strengthen the bullpen and provide leadership in a clubhouse after prominent players such as Ted Lilly and Derrek Lee were traded away last season.

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Pittsburgh Pirates

2010: 57-105, last place.

Manager: Clint Hurdle (1st season).

He's Here: RHP Kevin Correia, 1B Lyle Overbay, OF Matt Diaz, LHP Joe Beimel, LHP Scott Olsen, LHP Garrett Olson, INF Andy Marte, 3B Josh Fields.

He's Outta There: LHP Zach Duke, LHP Wil Ledezma, RHP Joe Martinez, 3B Andy LaRoche, INF Delwyn Young, OF Lastings Milledge.

Projected Lineup: LF Jose Tabata (.299, 4, 35), 2B Neil Walker (.296, 12, 66), CF Andrew McCutchen (.286, 16, 56, 33 SBs), 3B Pedro Alvarez (.256, 16, 64), 1B Lyle Overbay (.243, 20, 67 with Toronto), RF Matt Diaz (.250, 7, 31 with Atlanta) or Garrett Jones (.247, 21, 86), SS Ronny Cedeno (.256, 8, 38), C Chris Snyder (.207, 15, 48 with Arizona and Pittsburgh).

Rotation: LH Paul Maholm (9-15, 5.10), RH Kevin Correia (10-10, 5.40 with San Diego), RH Ross Ohlendorf (1-11, 4.07), RH James McDonald (4-6, 4.02), RH Charlie Morton (2-12, 7.57).

Key Relievers: RH Joel Hanrahan (4-1, 3.62, 6 saves), RH Evan Meek (5-4, 2.14, 4 saves, 70 games), LH Garrett Olson (0-3, 4.54 in 35 games with Seattle), LH Joe Beimel (1-2, 3.40, 71 games with Colorado), RH Daniel McCutchen (2-5, 6.12), RH Chris Resop (0-0, 3.86), RHP.

Hot Spots: Hitting, pitching and fielding -- the Pirates were last in the NL in all three categories in 2010. Pittsburgh figures to be better in all three areas this year, the sign of a young team with some emerging talent. That said, they need a six-game improvement simply to avoid another 100-loss season. At least Ohlendorf started out with a win -- he beat the Pirates in salary arbitration despite his better-than-it-looked 1-11 record, drawing a raise from $439,000 to over $2 million.

Outlook: Hurdle is one of the most positive-talking people in baseball. It's hard to be around him for more than a minute without believing his team will get better. He vows to fix the Pirates' problems one at a time -- unhappy with Pittsburgh pitchers hitting only .090 last year, for example, he got them more practice in exhibition games by often turning down a DH slot and making his pitchers hit this spring. But there's a lot to fix after a record 18 straight losing seasons. The Pirates hit just .242 last season and had a 5.00 ERA. They do have a talented young core with McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker and Tabata. Pittsburgh also has cornered the market on McCutchens -- Andrew and Daniel are the only players with that last name in major league history.

[Associated Press]

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