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Moshe Orenbuch, bank analyst at Credit Suisse, says the Durbin regulation will cost about $5 billion overall for the banking industry. Other analysts have pegged the losses as high as $10 billion. Orenbuch says he expects banks to be able to recoup only a modest portion of lost revenues in 2012. Most banks say they expect to make up for the lost revenue by next year, but none of them have given specific plans. Revenue and income at banks have already shrunk dramatically this year because interest rates are so low and demand for loans is anemic. "There is no silver bullet," says Sherief Meleis, a partner at bank consultant Novantas. Meleis says any bank that raises prices will not just see public pressure, but will face intense competition. He points to the credit unions and community banks that stepped up their advertising and marketing after Bank of America announced its $5 monthly debit card fee. Meleis says banks will have to rely on an incremental, but multi-pronged strategy like cutting costs by reducing the number of branches and also slashing staff at branches. Another strategy would be to generate more business per customer by offering incentives to those that bring in higher-margin transactions like credit cards and mortgages along with their checking accounts. Some of this is already bearing out. This year, Bank of America is in the process of closing down 10 percent of its branches and is cutting staff by 30,000. Last month, JPMorgan said it would reduce its branch expansion partly because of the reduction in revenue from debit card fees. FBR Capital Markets bank analyst Paul Miller says banks aren't going to make it attractive for customers who keep low balances because it costs the banks too much to keep them. "Unfortunately, the marginal customer will be pushed out the door," said Miller.
[Associated
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