 Quinn's three-year projection shows state revenues climbing for two
years and then dropping sharply when the state income tax increase
expires. More federal money could make up the difference, but
Illinois government would wind up with roughly the same amount to
spend in 2015 that it has now: a little over $33 billion.
Meanwhile, expenses will keep climbing unless officials take action.
The state's contribution to government pension systems is
projected to grow 43 percent, to about $5.9 billion. Quinn's
forecast shows health care costs holding steady, but that assumes
something happens in the next few years to control expenses. Without
that, Medicaid costs could rise by hundreds of millions of dollars a
year.
"Our revenue growth is not enough to keep up with pensions and
Medicaid. It creates a squeeze for everything else," said Quinn's
budget director, David Vaught.
Education and related programs will be caught in that squeeze,
Quinn said. His projection calls for holding education spending flat
at $8.9 billion for the next three years.
Public safety programs could fall by 8 percent, to $1.4 billion.
Services to the poor and vulnerable could take a 5 percent tumble.
The three-year budget forecast is part of a new initiative meant
to control state spending and focus on the most important government
programs. Called "Budgeting for Results," the initiative is supposed
to identify how much money is available and then trim spending to
meet that target, instead of the more traditional Illinois approach
of deciding how much to spend and then scrounging for the money.
One leader on the "Budgeting for Results" process, Sen. Dan
Kotowski, called the long-term projections an "essential" part of
stabilizing the budget.
"Fund what works, get rid of what doesn't," the Park Ridge
Democrat said. "This is our way to end the reckless spending
policies of the past."
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The figures Quinn released Tuesday are simply projections. The
numbers could change if the national economy picks up or officials
take action, such as making the tax increase permanent or cutting
back Medicaid services.
Vaught wouldn't say what action Quinn thinks will be necessary.
But he said the Democratic governor wants to work with both parties
on deciding what to do next.
Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno, R-Lemont, noted the new
report shows a budget deficit of $507 million this year, not
counting the state's billions of dollars' worth of unpaid bills. She
said Quinn and other Democratic leaders should work with the GOP on
further cost-cutting.
"We will be there for any sincere discussion on bringing spending
under control, revisiting how services are delivered and restoring
some fiscal stability to Illinois," Radogno said in a statement.
___
Online:
Governor's budget report:
http://bit.ly/ciCacC
[Associated Press]
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This
material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or
redistributed.
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