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Global trade to be weaker than expected

[April 10, 2013]  GENEVA (AP) -- Global trade will be weaker than expected this year as European economies struggle with their debt crisis, and will recover only slightly in 2014, the World Trade Organization said Wednesday.

The global trade body forecast in its annual report that trade would grow 3.3 percent during 2013, significantly less than the 4.5 percent it had earlier predicted.

That would be only a meager improvement from the 2 percent rise in 2012, a terrible year for global trade. Exports were ravaged then by the financial turmoil in the 17-country eurozone, economic aftershocks from Japan's earthquake and nuclear crisis, and the impact of political unrest in the oil-rich Middle East.

The WTO had earlier forecast a 3.7 percent rise in trade in 2012.

Trade growth also remains well below the 5.3 percent rate it averaged over the last 20 years, the WTO said. The figures represent the total volume of merchandise exported across borders, accounting for changes in prices and exchange rates.

The WTO's director-general, Pascal Lamy, told reporters that trade is expected to rebound to "more like 5 percent growth" in 2014, close to the 5.2 percent rate in 2011.

Lamy said the recent slowdown shows "there is a need for more rules-based trade in order to reduce unemployment and to stimulate growth."

Measured in dollar terms, the total value of merchandise traded in 2012 was $18.3 trillion, essentially unchanged from the year earlier due to falling prices for traded goods such as coffee, cotton, iron ore and coal.

[Associated Press]

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