"The USDA's June Acreage Report showed that producers planted,
or intended to plant, slightly more acres of both corn and
soybeans than indicated in the March Prospective Plantings
report," said Good. "The report also showed that the difference
between planted acreage and expected harvested acreage of corn
for grain was larger than average at 8.244 million acres. On the
other hand, the expected difference between planted and
harvested acreage of soybeans was smaller than average at
810,000 acres," he said. Additional information about the
likely level of planted and harvested acreage will continue to
be available to the market. The USDA indicated that it will
resurvey soybean acreage in 14 states during July and reflect
any changes in the August Crop Production report. Some
additional acreage information for both corn and soybeans may
also become available through the normal survey process for the
August, September, October and November production reports.
Certified acreage data from the Farm Service Agency will also
become available and should be reflected in the USDA's October
production report.
Another source of information about the magnitude of planted
acreage will be available with the FSA reports of prevented
planted acreage. Preliminary estimates are expected next month.
"The estimates of prevented planting are reported by crop and
by state and will be used to judge the potential change between
the June acreage estimates and actual planted acreage," Good
explained. "The problem with using that information, however, is
that there has been only a loose relationship between the
magnitude of total prevented planted acreage and the difference
between actual plantings and the June acreage estimate. In
recent history, the largest prevented planted acreage occurred
in 2011, when 9.6 million acres of all crops were reported as
prevented planting. Prevented plantings of corn were reported at
3 million acres, but total planted acreage of corn was only
346,000 less than the June acreage estimate.
"Similarly, prevented plantings of soybeans were reported at
1.45 million acres, but actual planted acreage of soybeans was
only 162,000 less than the June acreage estimate," Good said.
"For 2009 and 2010, when prevented planted acreage was also
large, the relationship between the magnitude of prevented
plantings and the difference between actual acreage and the June
estimate was only close for soybeans in 2010. For corn, actual
acreage in 2010 exceeded June intentions by 320,000 acres even
though prevented plantings were reported at 2.1 million acres,"
he said.
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Given the lateness of the 2013 planting season, reported prevented
planted acreage is likely to be large, Good said. In addition, some
planted acreage has been lost to flooding. As a result, actual
planted and harvested acreage of both corn and soybeans are likely
to be less than the June estimates. The magnitude of the difference,
however, may remain uncertain until October.
Good said the same factors that have created uncertainty about
planted and harvested acreage of corn and soybeans have also
contributed to early season yield uncertainty.
"Judging from current crop condition ratings, yield prospects at
this stage of the growing season are quite good," he said. "However,
overall yield prospects will be influenced less by developments to
date and more by weather conditions over the next two months as the
crops go through the reproductive and filling stages. Recent weather
and near-term weather prospects are a bit of a mixed bag, with
almost ideal moisture conditions in many areas, but too much
rainfall in some areas, dryness developing in some western areas and
generally above-average temperatures this week. As usual, there are
some differences of opinion about longer-term weather forecasts.
Prospects for moderating temperatures and thunderstorm activity,
however, bode well for yield prospects. The markets will continue to
monitor crop condition ratings for indications of yield potential,"
Good said.
Good concluded that even with harvested acreage less than
currently estimated, prospects for corn and soybean yields near
trend value in 2013 point to large crops and the likely buildup in
stocks during the 2013-14 marketing year.
"Due to the extreme lateness of soybean planting in some western
and northern growing areas, soybean yields may be at more risk than
corn yields," Good said. "Soybean yield uncertainty could persist
later in the season than is normally the case, with new-crop soybean
futures reflecting more production risk than new-crop corn futures."
[Text from file received from the
University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and
Environmental Sciences]
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