 Good said that expectations for the June 1 stocks estimates are
based on the estimate of March 1 stocks, the magnitude of
imports during the quarter and estimated consumption during the
quarter.
"Expectations sometimes vary considerably among analysts,"
Good said, "because estimates of consumption during the quarter
vary and some analysts try to anticipate ‘surprises.’ This is
particularly the case for corn because feed and the residual use
of corn is not estimated on a continuing basis. Instead, it is
revealed by the stocks estimate. Here the expectation of the
June 1 corn stocks estimate is based on available estimates of
other uses during the quarter and a calculation of feed and
residual use based on the USDA’s projection of use for the year
and estimated use during the first half of the year. A surprise
in the stocks estimate would be an indication that feed and
residual use was occurring either more rapidly or more slowly
than projected," he said.
According to Good, March 1 corn stocks were estimated at
5.399. Imports totaled 20 million bushels in March and April --
with totals of approximately 30 million bushels for the
March-May quarter.
"If that is the case, total corn supplies for the quarter
totaled 5.429 billion bushels," Good said. "Cumulative corn
export inspections through May totaled about 541 million
bushels. Through April, cumulative Census Bureau export
estimates for the marketing year exceeded inspections by 24
million bushels. If that margin persisted through May,
cumulative exports totaled 565 million bushels and exports for
the March-May quarter totaled 181 million bushels. Based on
ethanol production estimates from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, ethanol production during the March-May quarter
was 5.8 percent less than during the same quarter last year.
Based on those estimates, corn consumption for ethanol and
byproduct production during the quarter is estimated at 1.175
billion bushels. Domestic use for other food and industrial
products is estimated at 375 million bushels, which is
consistent with the pace during the first half of the year,"
Good said.
For the year, the USDA projects feed and residual use of corn
at 4.4 billion bushels, 145 million less than used last year.
The estimate of use during the first half of the year was 227
million less than use during the same period last year.
Good said that if the USDA’s projection for the year is
correct, use during the last half of the year should be 82
million bushels larger than use of a year ago. Use during the
final quarter of the year should be much larger than use last
year, when a large supply of the new crop was available in late
summer. With the late-planted crop this year, new crop supplies
will be much smaller. If that is the case, the USDA projection
would imply feed and residual during the March-May quarter of
about 840 million bushels, down about 20 million from use of a
year ago. Use at that level would result in total consumption
for the quarter of 2.571 billion bushels and June 1 stocks of
2.858 billion bushels.
[to top of second column] |
For soybeans, Good said that March 1 stocks were estimated at 999
million bushels, and March-May imports were likely near 10 million
bushels, resulting in total supplies of about 1.009 billion bushels.
Export inspections through May totaled 1.268 billion bushels, and
Census Bureau estimates through April exceeded inspections by 3
million bushels. With exports of 1.15 billion bushels in the first
half of the year, March-May exports are estimated at 121 million
bushels.
The National Oilseed Processors Association estimated the
domestic soybean crush by its members during March-May to be 7.5
percent less than during the same quarter last year, Good said.
"The total crush for the quarter is estimated at 400 million
bushels. With seed, feed and residual use of 50 million bushels,
total consumption during the quarter would have been near 571
million bushels, leaving June 1 stocks at 438 million bushels," he
said.
"Expectations for planted- and harvested-acreage estimates will
be based on the March report of planting intentions of 97.282
million acres for corn and 77.126 million acres for soybeans, and
likely changes from intentions based on the very late planting
season," Good said. "Because the survey for the estimates was
conducted in the first half of June, estimates may still reflect
intentions in some cases. It is difficult to form acreage
expectations, so a wide range of guesses is likely. Based on
anecdotal reports, a few non-random private surveys and historical
evidence, we would expect planted acreage of corn to be 2.5 to 3
million less than March intentions and soybean acreage to be as much
as 1 million acres more than intentions," he said.
Good said that the price reaction to the USDA reports will depend
on the differences between expected and actual estimates, and the
estimates for corn hold the most potential for surprises.
[Text from file received from the
University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and
Environmental Sciences] |
