 I appreciate the opening day of baseball, America's national
pastime.I understand the scarcity of events like the World Cup
and the Olympics.
But I love March Madness, specifically the NCAA tournament.
Love it. Adore it. Cherish it. Take your pick.
I guess it's probably rooted in my love of basketball, but then
again, I can watch basketball -- live or on television -- almost any
time from Nov. 1 through June.
The NCAA tournament has everything. Drama. Underdogs. Great
characters, often in the form of basketball royalty. Dream matchups
that are never duplicated. And, in the American tradition of filling
out a bracket, it's interactive. What more can a sports fan ask for?
My love for the tournament typically sparks a lot of reading and
research. After three days of doing so, and with the tournament
starting today, here are some of my thoughts, broken down by region.
Midwest
Upset special: Creighton over Duke in the Round of 32. Led by
All-American Doug McDermott, Creighton is as gifted offensively as
almost any team in the tournament. The Bluejays shoot a blistering
percentage from 3-point range, while McDermott can score from
anywhere. The defense-challenged Dukies will have their hands full.
Must-see TV: Memphis against St. Mary's. No big names here,
just a clash of basketball styles and dynamic point guards.
Lightning-quick Joe Jackson leads Memphis against St. Mary's crafty
Australian Matt Dellavedova in a matchup of two mid-major
powerhouses. The Tigers are dangerous with their length and
athleticism, while the Gaels can burn you from the outside. Either
one of these teams could upset likely second-round opponent Michigan
State, but I think Memphis prevails.
Final Four representative: Louisville. The tournament's
top-seeded team is no fluke. They have numerous weapons on offense,
outstanding pressure defense and an elite coach in Rick Pitino. This
is the toughest region, but Louisville's experience in making the
Final Four last season gives them a considerable edge.
West
Upset special: Pittsburgh over Gonzaga in the Round of 32.
This will be the most physical game in the tournament. Rugged
Pittsburg, out of the Big East, won't be intimidated by the
Bulldogs, who are led by big man Kelly Olynyk. Advanced basketball
metrics from the website kenpom.com suggest that the Panthers have
been one of the unluckiest teams in college basketball this season;
that changes this week.
Must-see TV: Ole Miss against Wisconsin. The Rebels are led
by motormouth and scoring savant Marshall Henderson. If you haven't
seen or heard of Henderson, well, you will soon. He is known for
being a showman who can rub basketball fans the wrong way when he
displays his emotions on the court. On the other bench, there's Bo
Ryan and his Badgers, playing yet another season of methodical,
slow-paced basketball that doesn't produce a lot of excitement but
certainly produces wins. Watching these teams trade possessions will
be like flipping channels between a classically trained orchestra
and a Lady Gaga concert.
Final Four representative: Arizona. Yes, a 6-seed in my
Final Four. But Arizona is no typical 6-seed. They went undefeated
in their nonconference scheduling, scoring wins over the likes of
Florida, Miami and San Diego State. Of their seven losses, three are
to UCLA, the Pac 12 champion, and four of seven were in conference
road games. They have balance on offense and enough size to get past
any of their opponents. They are the worst-seeded team in the
tournament, but that won't matter in the Final Four.
[to top of second column] |
South
Upset special: UCLA over Minnesota in the Round of 64. Yes, I
realize UCLA is the higher-seeded team, but the oddsmakers favor the
Golden Gophers. UCLA lost second-leading scorer Jordan Adams in
their conference tournament, effectively ending any dreams of a big
tournament run. That said, UCLA may not have to play all that well
to beat the inconsistent Golden Gophers, who are just as likely to
beat themselves with turnovers, bad shots and poor shooting. In a
close game that comes down to free throws, the slightly better
Bruins defy the experts and advance.
Must-see TV: Michigan and Virginia Commonwealth. This is the
game that excites me more than any other in the tournament. Assuming
both teams avoid upset bids in the first round, this game will pit
VCU's suffocating defense against one of the best backcourts in the
country in the Wolverines' Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Neither
team possesses much of a post presence, but each is well-coached and
can be streaky shooters beyond the 3-point arc. I ultimately think
Burke shows why he is one of the nation's best players and leads the
Blue and Gold to a win … and a couple more.
Final Four representative: Michigan. Some analysts have said
Michigan will be the first big-time team to go down, but I don't see
why. The Wolverines have seven losses, but a closer look yields
something worth noting: Four of those losses came on the road to the
Big Ten's best in Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin.
There's nothing to be ashamed of there. The Wolverines are the Big
Ten's most athletically explosive team and will benefit the most
from being rid of their conference brethren's slowed-down style.
Book it: Michigan is ready to make a run.
East
Upset special: Syracuse over Indiana in the Sweet 16. Indiana
may be the most talented team in the nation, but they have never
really put together the consistency of a championship team,
demonstrated by surprising losses to Butler, Illinois and Minnesota.
They also rely heavily on post player Cody Zeller, who could be
troubled by the Orangemen's traditional 2-3 zone. I think this
matchup is trouble for the Hoosiers.
Must-see TV: Butler against Bucknell. This one is easy!
Bucknell features former Railer Ben Brackney, who makes his second
tournament appearance with the Bison in three years. The last time
around, Ben got an up-close encounter with eventual champion UConn
and Kemba Walker. This time, they have a much better shot, taking on
the Bulldogs. Butler isn't quite as good as they've been in the
past, and some experts have pegged this as a great upset pick. For
Ben's sake, I hope so.
Final Four representative: Syracuse. This is a strange
region, in that none of the top four seeds strikes me as elite. I've
already been over my qualms regarding Indiana. Miami possesses
talent, but lacks experience and hasn't been challenged enough in
the overrated ACC. Marquette is gifted athletically but struggles
too much in scoring. That leaves Syracuse, and they are not even
guaranteed to win their first two games, which take place on the
West Coast. Syracuse does have the region's best coach in Jim
Boeheim and the best point guard in Michael Carter-Williams, two
critical components in any postseason run.
Final Four predictions:
Louisville over Arizona.
Michigan over Syracuse.
Louisville over Michigan for the national championship.
The Cardinals' combination of talent, coaching, a tough schedule
throughout the season and their tournament experience from last
season is just too good. Their defensive pressure is one-of-a-kind
and the resulting easy points in transition help lessen the pressure
on their half-court offense. Michigan would hang tight with them,
but in the end, Louisville cuts down the nets in Atlanta.
[By JUSTIN TIERNEY]
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