Thursday, March 21, 2013
 
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TIERNEY'S TOURNAMENT GUIDE

No letdowns for top-seeded Louisville

By Justin Tierney

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[March 21, 2013]  I enjoy the Super Bowl.

I appreciate the opening day of baseball, America's national pastime.

I understand the scarcity of events like the World Cup and the Olympics.

But I love March Madness, specifically the NCAA tournament.

Love it. Adore it. Cherish it. Take your pick.

I guess it's probably rooted in my love of basketball, but then again, I can watch basketball -- live or on television -- almost any time from Nov. 1 through June.

The NCAA tournament has everything. Drama. Underdogs. Great characters, often in the form of basketball royalty. Dream matchups that are never duplicated. And, in the American tradition of filling out a bracket, it's interactive. What more can a sports fan ask for?

My love for the tournament typically sparks a lot of reading and research. After three days of doing so, and with the tournament starting today, here are some of my thoughts, broken down by region.

Midwest

Upset special: Creighton over Duke in the Round of 32. Led by All-American Doug McDermott, Creighton is as gifted offensively as almost any team in the tournament. The Bluejays shoot a blistering percentage from 3-point range, while McDermott can score from anywhere. The defense-challenged Dukies will have their hands full.

Must-see TV: Memphis against St. Mary's. No big names here, just a clash of basketball styles and dynamic point guards. Lightning-quick Joe Jackson leads Memphis against St. Mary's crafty Australian Matt Dellavedova in a matchup of two mid-major powerhouses. The Tigers are dangerous with their length and athleticism, while the Gaels can burn you from the outside. Either one of these teams could upset likely second-round opponent Michigan State, but I think Memphis prevails.

Final Four representative: Louisville. The tournament's top-seeded team is no fluke. They have numerous weapons on offense, outstanding pressure defense and an elite coach in Rick Pitino. This is the toughest region, but Louisville's experience in making the Final Four last season gives them a considerable edge.

West

Upset special: Pittsburgh over Gonzaga in the Round of 32. This will be the most physical game in the tournament. Rugged Pittsburg, out of the Big East, won't be intimidated by the Bulldogs, who are led by big man Kelly Olynyk. Advanced basketball metrics from the website kenpom.com suggest that the Panthers have been one of the unluckiest teams in college basketball this season; that changes this week.

Must-see TV: Ole Miss against Wisconsin. The Rebels are led by motormouth and scoring savant Marshall Henderson. If you haven't seen or heard of Henderson, well, you will soon. He is known for being a showman who can rub basketball fans the wrong way when he displays his emotions on the court. On the other bench, there's Bo Ryan and his Badgers, playing yet another season of methodical, slow-paced basketball that doesn't produce a lot of excitement but certainly produces wins. Watching these teams trade possessions will be like flipping channels between a classically trained orchestra and a Lady Gaga concert.

Final Four representative: Arizona. Yes, a 6-seed in my Final Four. But Arizona is no typical 6-seed. They went undefeated in their nonconference scheduling, scoring wins over the likes of Florida, Miami and San Diego State. Of their seven losses, three are to UCLA, the Pac 12 champion, and four of seven were in conference road games. They have balance on offense and enough size to get past any of their opponents. They are the worst-seeded team in the tournament, but that won't matter in the Final Four.

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South

Upset special: UCLA over Minnesota in the Round of 64. Yes, I realize UCLA is the higher-seeded team, but the oddsmakers favor the Golden Gophers. UCLA lost second-leading scorer Jordan Adams in their conference tournament, effectively ending any dreams of a big tournament run. That said, UCLA may not have to play all that well to beat the inconsistent Golden Gophers, who are just as likely to beat themselves with turnovers, bad shots and poor shooting. In a close game that comes down to free throws, the slightly better Bruins defy the experts and advance.

Must-see TV: Michigan and Virginia Commonwealth. This is the game that excites me more than any other in the tournament. Assuming both teams avoid upset bids in the first round, this game will pit VCU's suffocating defense against one of the best backcourts in the country in the Wolverines' Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Neither team possesses much of a post presence, but each is well-coached and can be streaky shooters beyond the 3-point arc. I ultimately think Burke shows why he is one of the nation's best players and leads the Blue and Gold to a win … and a couple more.

Final Four representative: Michigan. Some analysts have said Michigan will be the first big-time team to go down, but I don't see why. The Wolverines have seven losses, but a closer look yields something worth noting: Four of those losses came on the road to the Big Ten's best in Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin. There's nothing to be ashamed of there. The Wolverines are the Big Ten's most athletically explosive team and will benefit the most from being rid of their conference brethren's slowed-down style. Book it: Michigan is ready to make a run.

East

Upset special: Syracuse over Indiana in the Sweet 16. Indiana may be the most talented team in the nation, but they have never really put together the consistency of a championship team, demonstrated by surprising losses to Butler, Illinois and Minnesota. They also rely heavily on post player Cody Zeller, who could be troubled by the Orangemen's traditional 2-3 zone. I think this matchup is trouble for the Hoosiers.

Must-see TV: Butler against Bucknell. This one is easy! Bucknell features former Railer Ben Brackney, who makes his second tournament appearance with the Bison in three years. The last time around, Ben got an up-close encounter with eventual champion UConn and Kemba Walker. This time, they have a much better shot, taking on the Bulldogs. Butler isn't quite as good as they've been in the past, and some experts have pegged this as a great upset pick. For Ben's sake, I hope so.

Final Four representative: Syracuse. This is a strange region, in that none of the top four seeds strikes me as elite. I've already been over my qualms regarding Indiana. Miami possesses talent, but lacks experience and hasn't been challenged enough in the overrated ACC. Marquette is gifted athletically but struggles too much in scoring. That leaves Syracuse, and they are not even guaranteed to win their first two games, which take place on the West Coast. Syracuse does have the region's best coach in Jim Boeheim and the best point guard in Michael Carter-Williams, two critical components in any postseason run.

Final Four predictions:

Louisville over Arizona.

Michigan over Syracuse.

Louisville over Michigan for the national championship.

The Cardinals' combination of talent, coaching, a tough schedule throughout the season and their tournament experience from last season is just too good. Their defensive pressure is one-of-a-kind and the resulting easy points in transition help lessen the pressure on their half-court offense. Michigan would hang tight with them, but in the end, Louisville cuts down the nets in Atlanta.

[By JUSTIN TIERNEY]

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