Monday's upbeat report was the latest to indicate growth was set to
accelerate in the second quarter after an unusually cold and snowy
winter hobbled activity early in the year.
"It shows there is an underlying current of strength in the economy
despite the drag from the severe winter weather," said Robert Dye,
chief economist at Comerica in Dallas.
The Commerce Department said retail sales increased 1.1 percent last
month, the biggest gain since September 2012, with receipts rising
in nearly all categories.
February's increase was raised to 0.7 percent from a previously
reported 0.3 percent. Economists had expected retail sales, which
account for a third of consumer spending, to advance only 0.8
percent last month.
The data combined with an improvement in quarterly profits from
Citigroup to lift stocks on Wall Street after a sharp selloff in
recent sessions. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies,
while prices for U.S. Treasury debt fell.
The sales figures added to recent employment data in suggesting the
economy found momentum at the end of the first quarter. Job growth
averaged 195,000 per month in February and March, an improvement
over the prior two months, and first-time applications for
unemployment benefits in early April fell back to their
These bullish signals have bolstered hopes that growth this year
will be the fastest since the 2007-09 recession ended.
"This is not a fragile economy. The linchpin of economic growth, the
consumer is back and with the consumer's help, growth will be even
faster in 2014," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.
A separate report from the New York Fed released on Monday showed
people grew more confident in the labor market last month, with
younger workers in particular seeing a greater chance of finding
work should they lose their current job.
ON SOLID FOOTING
The retail sales data led some economists to bump up first-quarter
GDP growth estimates briefly, before they scrambled to lower them
after a separate Commerce Department report showed retail
inventories, excluding automobiles, rose only 0.2 percent in
February after increasing 0.6 percent in January.
Businesses accumulated too much stock in the second half of last
year and are placing fewer orders with manufacturers as they work
through the pile of unsold goods.
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That has left the inventory to sales ratio at its highest level
since September 2009. But with consumers showing an appetite to
spend, thanks to improving household wealth, businesses should be
able to reduce their bloated stocks.
First-quarter gross domestic product growth estimates now range as
low as a 0.5 percent annual pace. Many economists, however, expect
growth of around a 3 percent rate in the second quarter and through
the rest of the year.
So-called core retail sales, which strip out automobiles, gasoline,
building materials and food services, and which correspond most
closely with the consumer spending component of the government's GDP
report, increased 0.8 percent in March.
February's core sales were revised to show a 0.4 percent rise
instead of the previously reported 0.3 percent gain.
Nevertheless, consumer spending likely slowed sharply in the first
quarter from the fourth quarter's brisk 3.3 percent pace as core
sales fell in January.
Retail sales last month were buoyed by a 3.1 percent surge in
receipts at automobile and parts dealers, the biggest advance since
September 2012. Still, even excluding autos, sales rose 0.7 percent,
the biggest increase in a year.
Sales at building materials and garden equipment stores recorded
their largest gain in eight months. The share price of home
improvement chain Lowe's was up about 1 percent on Monday,
outperforming the broader market.
Receipts at electronics and appliance stores, however, fell as did
sales at gasoline stations. Retail sales excluding gasoline
increased a solid 1.4 percent, the biggest advance in four years.
There were gains in sales at furniture, clothing, general
merchandise, health and personal care, food and beverage, sporting
goods, restaurants and nonstore retailers.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; editing by Andrea Ricci)
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