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 HSBC's composite emerging markets index of manufacturing and
services purchasing managers' surveys slipped for the second month
running to 51.4 in January. It stayed under the 2013 average of 51.7
and well below the score of 64.1 posted last January.
But the monthly index remained above the 50 threshold which marks
the difference between expansion and contraction.
Based on data from purchasing managers at about 8,000 firms in 17
countries, the survey showed signs of manufacturing and export
revival in some countries but Chinese factory output fell below the
50 mark, Brazilian manufacturing growth slowed and output fell in
Russia and Indonesia.
Growth was stronger in India, Poland, Taiwan and Mexico.
January services activity in the biggest emerging markets was at a
six-month low. India and Brazil both posted declines, while growth
rates in China and Russia were weak, HSBC said.
HSBC's global head of emerging markets research, Pablo Goldberg,
said the data showed a clear divergence in recovery pattern between
emerging economies.
"Among the winners, we have countries in a clear cyclical recovery
that are being lifted by the improvement in the developed markets:
Mexico, Poland and the Czech Republic," Goldberg said.
"By contrast, PMIs decelerated in Turkey, Brazil, Russia and
Indonesia. These are among the countries where deteriorating
external balances have prevented monetary easing or forced
tightening."
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Several emerging central banks such as Turkey, India, South Africa
and Brazil have tightened monetary policy in recent weeks and many
more are expected to follow suit, with severe consequences for
economic growth.
While inflationary pressures were subdued, weak currencies were
raising costs for some manufacturers, HSBC said. Turkish firms for
instance saw the steepest rise in input prices in nearly three
years, a result of the lira's fall to record lows.
The future output index, which tracks firms' expectations for
activity in 12 months' time, picked up in January after falling in
December to a six-month low.
But within this, manufacturing sentiment hit a ten-month high while
that in the service sector fell to a record low.
The HSBC index is calculated using data produced by Markit.
(Reporting by Sujata Rao; editing by
Ruth Pitchford)
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