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"We still believe an El Nino is likely," Andrew
Watkins, Supervisor Climate Prediction at the Australian Bureau
of Meteorology, said.
"The recent observations may suggest a later El Nino and it has
perhaps reduced the chance of very strong El Nino like we saw in
1997/1998."
The bureau said ocean warming had leveled off, counter to
typical observations prior to previous El Nino events when
temperatures continued to rise.
The agency also said it had observed a recent positive value for
the Southern Oscillation Index - a measure of large-scale
fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and
eastern tropical Pacific. A positive value is linked to
abnormally cold ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific
associated with an opposite La Nina weather event.
However, despite the easing of some indicators, the Australian
bureau said it continued to expected an El Nino in the southern
hemisphere's 2014 spring.
El Nino - a warming of sea temperatures in the Pacific - affects
wind patterns and can trigger both floods and drought in
different parts of the globe, hitting crops and food supply.
U.S. and Japanese weather forecasters also expect an El Nino to
develop.
(Reporting by Colin Packham; Editing by Ed Davies)
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