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Bank of Japan action sees dollar surge past 113 yen for first time in seven years

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[November 03, 2014] By Jemima Kelly

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar rocketed past 113 yen on Monday for the first time since December 2007, extending a sell-off of the Japanese currency after the Bank of Japan's surprise decision to boost its already massive bond-buying stimulus.

Sellers also targeted the euro, which slipped to a new two-year low against the dollar ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later this week, which will be watched closely for any indication that policy will be eased further to shore up the euro zone's flailing economy.

Those gains helped the dollar reach a new four-year high against a basket of major currencies <.DXY> of 87.400, adding to gains made last week on the back of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy statement that was less dovish than expected.

The dollar surged by 1.2 percent to reach 113.73 yen <JPY=> on trading platform EBS. That added to an almost 3 percent rise on Friday after the BOJ raised its monetary base target to an annual increase of 80 trillion yen from 60-70 trillion yen and tripled the pace of its buying of risk assets.

The BOJ announcement was followed by news that Japan's $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund will raise its holdings of foreign stocks to 25 percent from 12 percent, a figure that some analysts said was much higher than expected.
 


"The question is how high can we go," said Valentin Marinov, head of European G10 currency strategy at Citi in London.

"The move on Friday was dominated by a yen sell-off across the board, but ... any move higher from here in the near term would depend on further dollar outperformance."

The one-month dollar/yen implied volatility - an indicator of how much currency movement is expected over the coming four weeks - spiked to a nine-month high <JPYVOL1MO=> as speculators hedged against sharp moves in the yen.

One-month dollar/yen risk-reversals <JPY1MRR=> - a gauge of demand for options betting on a currency's rising or falling - moved to show a bias for dollar strength for the first time since July.

Marinov, however, said that while the market was increasingly betting on a breakout move that could push dollar/yen up to much higher levels, the spike in implied volatility was more a knee-jerk reaction to the scale of the yen's moves over the last two days than an indication of big price swings to come.


EURO WEAK BEFORE ECB

In a sign of just how bearish sentiment is against the yen, the struggling euro touched a six-month high of 142.095 yen.

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But against the dollar, the euro fell to as low as $1.2439 in Asian trading, its weakest since August 2012. It was last trading at $1.2498, down 0.2 percent on the day.

Euro zone manufacturing activity expanded slightly slower than first thought last month as further discounts at the factory gate failed to drive up new orders, a business survey showed on Monday.

Traders suspect the euro will stay on the defensive in the lead-up to the European Central Bank policy review on Thursday.

"We've had surprises from central banks last week in the form of (the) Riksbank and the Bank of Japan, and pressure is obviously on the ECB," said Mitul Kotecha, head of FX strategy, Asia-Pacific for Barclays in Singapore.

The Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, cut its key interest rate last week by a bigger-than-expected 25 basis points to a record low of zero percent to fight persistently low inflation.

The Australian dollar slipped to a two-week low of $0.8703 following a weak official survey on China's manufacturing sector and a surprisingly large fall in Australian building approvals. It was last trading at $0.8718, down 0.9 percent on the day.

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano in Singapore and Ian Chua in Sydney; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Susan Fenton)

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