|
 And three drivers in particular will be fighting tooth-and-nail
to take advantage of it.
At Kansas Speedway, in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400, the Wheel of
Ill Fortune landed on "Wipeout" for Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski
and Dale Earnhardt Jr. and turned the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint
Cup inside-out.
Keselowski and Earnhardt finished 36th and 39th, respectively, after
blown right front tires sent their cars on a collision course with
the outside wall. Earnhardt was leading when he wrecked. Keselowski
had just passed Jamie McMurray for fifth place.
Running mid-pack early in the race, the result of a poor qualifying
effort, Johnson's No. 48 Chevrolet was collected in a pinball-style
wreck on the backstretch. Johnson finished 40th, matching his
worst-ever showing in a Chase race (2005 at Homestead).
The stark facts of life are as follows: Two races down the road, on
Oct. 19 at Talladega, the Chase field will be trimmed from 12 to
eight drivers. Keselowski, Earnhardt and Johnson, in that order, are
10th, 11th and 12th in the Chase standings, 22, 25 and 27 points
behind eighth-place Jeff Gordon.
 With only two races left in the Contender Round of the Chase, the
probability of all three drivers advancing to the Eliminator Round
after Talladega is just about nil.
But there's a quick fix to the problem: just win at Charlotte on
Saturday night. Any Chase driver winning the Bank of America 500
gets a golden ticket into the Eliminator Round, just as Joey Logano
did for his win at Kansas on Sunday.
You'd think Johnson would have a leg up at Charlotte, where he won
the Coca-Cola 600 in dominating fashion earlier this year. Of late,
however, the No. 48 Chevrolet hasn't been able to match the speed of
Keselowski, Logano, Kevin Harvick or Jeff Gordon.
Seven races have passed since Johnson last led a lap, and unless he
rediscovers his Chase magic at Charlotte, he will be in precisely
the position he dreads -- heading to Talladega needing a victory or
perhaps a top five to survive the Contender Round.
Keselowski and Earnhardt, 10th and 19th, respectively, in this
year's Coca-Cola 600, are in the same position, but at least they
have shown speed of late. Keselowski has five wins this season, his
most recent coming at 1.5-mile Chicagoland Speedway in the first
Chase race.
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Earnhardt set a blistering pace at Kansas and led 45 laps before he
hit the wall. On the other hand, those were the first laps the No.
88 Chevrolet had led since August at Michigan, and Earnhardt hasn't
been to Victory Lane at a 1.5-mile intermediate speedway since 2005
at Chicagoland.
Obviously, winning one race when you have to win it is a daunting
task for any driver.
And there's another factor to consider. Drivers who survived Kansas
with their Chase hopes intact have a huge incentive to prevent
Johnson and Keselowski, in particular, from taking the checkered
flag. Collectively, those two drivers have won seven of the last
eight NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships -- Johnson six and
Keselowski one.
The prospect of eliminating contenders of that caliber (along with
Earnhardt, who is enjoying his best season since 2004) must be a
delightful one for the likes of Harvick, Logano and Jeff Gordon.
To state the obvious, the path to a title becomes considerably less
arduous when several of your most formidable potential challengers
are eliminated.
Under those circumstances, drivers comfortably inside the Chase
bubble have almost as much reason to go for the win at Charlotte as
Johnson, Keselowski and Earnhardt do.
And that could make for a scintillating race on Saturday night.
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