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 Arms folded, she scans the racks of baby clothes in her small
store before flicking a glance towards the empty sidewalk.
"Just a year ago this area used to be packed with shoppers but
nowadays it's all empty, my store included," she said.
After a decade of economic growth and welfare policies that lifted
more than 30 million Brazilians out of poverty, Jardim São Luis and
other tough neighborhoods across Brazil had high hopes for the
future.
But a faltering economy and mounting frustration over poor public
services are dimming the outlook for Brazil's "new middle class."
As that happens, leftist President Dilma Rousseff is watching a
once-loyal base - and her chances of re-election next month - slip
away. Her main rival, environmentalist Marina Silva, has surged in
the polls and is favored to win a likely second-round runoff against
Rousseff.
Last month, 13 of 14 people interviewed in Jardim São Luis said they
were sure they would not vote for Rousseff, but could not point to a
clear alternative. Just a week later, after the first televised
debate between the candidates, 8 of 10 people interviewed said they
had already decided to vote for Silva or would strongly consider it.
The other two were still unsure.
 Silva, who grew up poor on a rubber plantation, has emerged as the
anti-establishment candidate in this campaign. Within three weeks of
entering the race late following the death of her party's original
candidate, she is in striking distance of becoming the first
Afro-Brazilian woman to lead Brazil.
"Marina is humble, like us," said 60 year-old fruit vendor Ana Luiza
de Souza in Jardim São Luis. "Dilma did what she could, now it's
time for something new."
HIGH EXPECTATIONS
Brazil's emerging middle class is a defining legacy of Luiz Inacio
Lula da Silva's 2003-2010 presidency, a period of rapid economic
growth that slashed poverty rates and fueled a massive surge in
consumer spending.
It is the lowest-earning yet most populous segment of Brazil's
broadly-defined middle class, which ranges from the very comfortable
to those who in developed countries would be described as the
working poor.
Defined as those with a monthly household income of three to five
minimum wages - about $960 to $1,600 - it includes millions who are
hovering just above the poverty line but whose spending habits have
been transformed.
About 108 million people, or nearly 54 percent of the population,
are in the increasingly influential demographic, a key target group
in the tight presidential race.
Many live in neighborhoods like Jardim São Luis. Here, higher wages
and newfound access to credit during last decade's economic boom
opened the door to once-unattainable goods and services.
In time, new cars trundled up the neighborhood's hilly side streets,
where bare brick houses were remodeled and filled with new furniture
and televisions. For the first time, many residents bought
smartphones and brand-name clothes.
By the time 2010's presidential election came around, economic
growth was running at 7.5 percent, the future looked promising, and
most of the neighborhood voted for Rousseff, largely because she was
Lula's hand-picked successor.
But four years later, the economy is stagnant, inflation is
stubbornly high at 6.5 percent and much of the middle class is
fuming. That anger boiled over in June of last year, when more than
a million Brazilians took to the streets in anti-government
protests.
 "Lula changed Brazil a hell of a lot and everyone thought things
would follow on the same path with Dilma. They didn't. This year not
many people around here are going to give her another chance," said
Ricardo Matavelli, a furniture assembler in Jardim São Luis.
Even Lula now faces criticism from some voters who fear the economic
improvements of the last decade could simply disappear.
"I trusted Lula and Dilma when they said things would keep getting
better. Not anymore. Everything is just getting worse," said Rocha,
who as a child rarely saw her mother because she had to work long
hours to support the family. Today she too works seven days a week
tending to her business.
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OVERPROMISED FUTURE
The euphoria over owning a new car only lasts so long.
Many Brazilians, including Rocha, face a heavy debt burden with
higher interest rates. After buying an apartment and a car, she has
been unable to pay off her credit card bill, store debt and personal
loans, and is now on a credit watch list.
While unemployment remains near historic lows, the specter of job
losses looms as businesses including retailers and carmakers begin
to cut back. "It was as if these people were overpromised a future
that didn't arrive," said Renato Meirelles, head of research firm
Data Popular, which surveys Brazil's middle and lower classes.
"When it became clear that the growth we saw in 2010 was actually
the peak and not just the beginning, people began to worry that
their hopes for the future would not be realized."
For Rocha, those hopes included renovating her home. Others in the
neighborhood planned to open a small business or enroll their
children in modest private schools.
To be sure, many Brazilians are sticking with Rousseff. Her Workers'
Party maintains strong loyalty among poorer and rural Brazilians,
who are the main beneficiaries of government welfare programs,
housing subsidies and educational grants.
"The poor are still a very, very big group, and even if she loses
some ground there, it will provide her with a means of support,"
said Carlos Melo, a political scientist with business school Insper
in São Paulo.
Silva's rise in opinion polls could also slow or even reverse as she
comes under attack from rival candidates and lays out her policies
in greater detail.
But Rousseff, who just over a month ago seemed a safe bet for
re-election, is undoubtedly in a tough fight.
 According to a new poll by research firm Datafolha, 35 percent of
people with a household income of between two and five minimum wages
- near the bottom of the new middle class - would not vote for
Rousseff under any circumstances, up from 27 percent late last year.
The number rises to 44 percent for those who earn five to ten
minimum wages.
Similar trends have unfolded in other developing countries such as
India, where anger among the emerging middle class over slowing
economic growth helped launch Narendra Modi, a former tea peddler,
into power earlier this year.
STADIUMS OR SCHOOLS
Economic stagnation has not affected everyone in Jardim São Luis
equally but frustration runs deep over the quality of public
services such as schools, daycare centers and healthcare.
And two months after the World Cup soccer tournament, resentment is
still simmering over the billions of dollars the Rousseff government
spent to host the event.
As Jose Ides, an out-of-work salesman and lifelong Jardim São Luis
resident, put it, "When the people ask for another hospital or a
school they can't find the money. But when someone wants to build a
stadium, there it is."
While the amount spent on stadiums pales in comparison to Brazil's
social spending, the World Cup highlighted the weakness of public
services and for many is a symbol of skewed priorities.
"You have a population of poor people and here we are putting on a
show," Ides said. "That's where Dilma lost my vote."
(Editing by Todd Benson and Kieran Murray)
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