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Shares, sterling gain as Scotland poll eases nerves

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[September 11, 2014] By Sudip Kar-Gupta

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares edged up and sterling rose from multi-month lows on Thursday after a poll showing most Scots intend to vote against independence next week alleviated concerns over the United Kingdom's future.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.1 percent, with UK financial stocks with strong business ties to Scotland - such as insurer Standard Life and Royal Bank of Scotland - outperforming.

Sterling was up by 0.2 percent at $1.6242, having recovered on Wednesday from $1.6051, its lowest since mid-November last year, after the latest Survation poll was released. The euro eased 0.2 percent to 79.560 pence, below a three-month high of 80.66 pence struck on Wednesday.

The poll on behalf of the Daily Record newspaper showed 47 percent intending to vote "Yes" to independence and 53 percent against. Other recent surveys had put the rival campaigns neck-and-neck.

The latest Scottish survey also impacted Spanish bond yields, which fell since the poll was seen as lessening the risk that a breakaway Scotland could embolden a similar bid by Spain's wealthy Catalonia region.



Brian Hennessey, portfolio manager of the Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund, said that while the Scotland vote was creating some near-term uncertainty, the broader global economic backdrop remained reassuring for markets.

"The macroeconomic backdrop is favorable, with the labour market improving steadily in places like the U.S, Germany and the UK," said Hennessey.

DOLLAR RISES AGAINST YEN

The dollar looked strong across the board, trading at 84.257 against a basket of major currencies, near a 14-month high of 84.519 reached on Tuesday. It is on track for a ninth consecutive week of gains - its longest winning streak since 1997 - as expectations grow that the U.S. Federal Reserve might raise interest rates next year.

Stock markets further afield also edged up on Thursday, with the MSCI World Index, which tracks stocks from developed economies, gaining 0.1 percent.

Hennessey said efforts by major central banks to prop up the global economy would continue to support equities. Even though the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates soon, the European Central Bank has slashed rates to record lows and undertaken extra economic stimulus measures.

"We have an overweight stance on European equities in the longer term because on a relative valuation basis it remains more attractive relative to the U.S., the more positive policy stance from the ECB is also likely to support prices," added James Butterfill, global equity strategist at Coutts.
 

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U.S. stocks ended higher overnight, which helped underpin Asian stock markets. Japan's Nikkei stock average added 0.8 percent to close at an eight-month high.

Chinese consumer prices cooled more than expected in August, up 2.0 percent from a year earlier, missing market expectations for 2.2 percent and down from 2.3 percent in July.

However, the China data provided more evidence of economic slowdown and some economists said Beijing might announce fresh stimulus measures.

The Chinese inflation data pushed London copper prices to their lowest level in almost three months, while gold also traded near a three-month low.

"The comfortable inflation figure will provide sufficient room for the central bank to loosen its monetary policy. The possibility of an interest rate cut cannot be ruled out in coming months," said Li Huiyong, economist at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.

Brent crude fell to a 17-month low below $98 a barrel on Thursday, down for the sixth straight session as worries over ample supply and weak demand outweighed concerns that conflict in the Middle East could curb oil production.

(additional reporting by Lisa Twaronite, Atul Prakash, Jemima Kelly and Emelia Sithole-Matarise, editing by John Stonestreet and Hugh Lawson)

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