|
The central bank has an inflation target of 5
percent plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for this year, but
its latest forecasts make clear the target will be missed.
"Inflation, pressured by external and unpredictable factors, has
accelerated significantly," head of the central bank Elvira
Nabiullina told a weekly government meeting.
"It's already obvious that based on 2014 results, the 5 percent
target cannot be met. Based on our estimates, inflation will
come to 7.5 percent and may be even higher."
Inflation is spiking in part because of a ban on many food
imports which Russia introduced in retaliation for Western
sanctions over Ukraine, the central bank has previously said.
The central bank has three economic development scenarios for
the next three years, but may also add another "stress"
scenario, which envisages a sharp decline in oil prices.
"The central bank is developing a fourth scenario, a stress
scenario, which assumes a sharp, more significant decline in oil
prices on the forecast horizon," Nabiullina said, without
providing more detail.
The bank's current "pessimistic" scenario already envisages a
drop in crude prices of $20 per barrel or more. Oil and gas
account for about half of Russia's government revenues.
That decline, the bank said in a recent monetary policy report,
could come because of significantly weaker global economic
growth, particularly in emerging markets and especially China,
as well as a rise in crude exports from the United States and
the Middle East.
That scenario estimates that with a dip in crude prices of $20
per barrel or more, Russia's gross domestic product would grow
by 0.5 percent next year, 0.3 percent in 2016 and 0.4 percent in
2017.
(Editing by Catherine Evans)
[© 2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2014 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 |
|
