Which teachers will go first as schools shrink?
 

[April 27, 2015]  By Kenric Ward | Watchdog.org
 
 Falling birth rates will cut school attendance in the coming years, but just 18 states require that competence be considered when laying off teachers. That means union-crafted seniority rules will drive the process in most districts, further compromising the quality of public education.

“Our national enrollment of elementary school students will be down about 9 percent,” projected Michael Petrilli, president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute in New York City.

Fourteen states posted declining birthrates of 10 percent or more between 2007 and 2013 (the latest year for which comparisons were available). According to Fordham:

Mississippi: down 16.9 percent
Arizona: down 16.9 percent
Nevada: down 14.9 percent
Georgia: down 14.8 percent
New Mexico: down 13.9 percent
Connecticut: down 13.4 percent
Illinois: down 13.2 percent
Rhode Island: down 12.7 percent
California: down 12.7 percent
New Hampshire: down 12.5 percent
New Jersey: down 11.6 percent
Delaware: down 11 percent
Idaho: down 10.5 percent
Alabama: down 10.2 percent
Only three of those states — Georgia, Illinois and Rhode Island — consider on-the-job performance when deciding which teachers to keep, according to the National Council on Teacher Quality.

“It’s more important than ever to make sure that RIFs (reductions in force) are done in a fair way — taking into account not just seniority, but also effectiveness,” Petrilli said.

But the three states expecting the biggest enrollment drops — Mississippi, Arizona and Nevada — can RIF instructors without regard to performance. So can the nation’s most populous state, California, which is also experiencing a steady drop in birthrates.

Most states rely on a seniority-based system, which dictates the last teachers hired are the first fired — irrespective of their competence in the classroom. Unions prefer this last-in/first-out formula, but Petrilli said quality-conscious state policymakers and local school boards should reconsider.

“If you don’t want lots of your young, energetic elementary teachers getting pink slips, time is quickly running out,” he said.

Kenric Ward is a national reporter for Watchdog.org and chief of its Virginia Bureau. Contact him at [phone]. @Kenricward