NASCAR silly season in full bloom

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[August 07, 2015]   By Jonathan Ingram, The Sports Xchange
 
 It's rare when NASCAR's silly season revolves around a teenager who has yet to win a Sprint Cup race, a furniture dealer with a team in Denver and a former London-based financier. But there you have it.

When team owner Joe Gibbs all but confirmed this week that Erik Jones will advance to the Sprint Cup after a full season next year in the Xfinity Series, it set off speculation about which of his four current drivers -- each an established star -- Jones would replace in 2017.

NASCAR rules limit teams to four entries, meaning Denny Hamlin or Matt Kenseth might be on the hot seat in 2017. Carl Edwards has a three-year contract extending through 2017 and Kyle Busch, who has won four of six races, is a young driver the team plans to keep.

The confirmation of the plan for Jones also sparked speculation about Gibbs and Toyota setting up an alliance with another team -- much like the ones enjoyed by Chevy between Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart Haas Racing, plus Richard Childress Racing and Furniture Row Racing. Each of those alliances has produced victories this year, although RCR continues to look for one.

The establishment of a so-called satellite team by Toyota seems possible because it appears unlikely that Toyota will re-up with Michael Waltrip Racing.

Rob Kauffman, the current 50 percent owner of MWR, may be the key. A former owner of Fortress Investment Group, Kauffman has confirmed that he is investing in the Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates team beginning in 2016, which leaves MWR with no confirmed manufacturer deal, no sponsorship for one of its two entries and no independent financing. The lone MWR entry with a confirmed deal is the car of Clint Bowyer, sponsored by 5-Hour Energy and a candidate to make this year's Chase.

Speculation remains rife, however, that Bowyer and 5-Hour will move to Ganassi's team next year with Kauffman.

Where does the Furniture Row team, based in Denver, fit in? Team owner Barney Visser has made it clear he feels his Chevy team is short-changed in its manufacturer arrangement -- although it benefits from the alliance with the Childress team. Visser's team remains a possible candidate for Toyota, but his lone entry is self-sponsored and no sponsorship for additional cars is on the horizon.

The key to all of these moves remains Toyota. Dave Wilson, president of Toyota Racing Development, has confirmed that he wants more Toyotas in the Chase. With Busch's victory in the Brickyard 400, the Japanese company has won just about everything in NASCAR's premier series except the championship. But Wilson has stopped short of talking about any plans with MWR or Furniture Row, saying each team had yet to make any decisions.

Wilson has said he thinks it may take as many as seven or eight Toyota drivers in the Chase each year to eventually win a championship. As it stands in 2015, Chevy has five drivers confirmed in the Chase, with Jamie McMurray of Ganassi and Jeff Gordon of Hendrick likely to survive in the points. Ford has two -- both Penske drivers. Toyota will have four confirmed once Busch gains the Top 30 in points, as required by NASCAR's ruling following the driver's injuries the day before the Daytona 500.

Toyota might make five drivers if Bowyer can win one of the remaining five races or eke into the title run on points. So what can Toyota do to increase its chances starting in 2017 -- aside from bringing in young talents like Jones and current Camping World Toyota Truck Series points leader Matt Crafton?

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If it's a numbers game, as Wilson suggests, then an alliance of two strong teams is the best bet. Ganassi has deals in place with Hendrick Motorsports for engines and is one of Chevy's teams. But what about 2017? Is it possible that Ganassi, strengthened by Kauffman's financing and the presence of a third car driven by Bowyer and sponsored by 5-Hour, could switch to Toyota

That could create a powerhouse alliance between the Gibbs and Ganassi teams similar to what Chevy has between Hendrick and Stewart-Hass, which has four drivers with multiple wins this year. It also could resolve the problem of where to place one of the Gibbs team's veteran winners with sponsorship in 2017, when Jones steps up to the Sprint Cup. Instead of creating a "satellite" team, Toyota could work within established winning organizations, including two people it has done business with previously -- Kauffman and Ganassi.

MWR likely would have faltered badly if Kauffman had not invested in the team late in its first season in 2007, also the first season for Toyota in the Sprint Cup. Kauffman was not involved in MWR's "rocket fuel" cheating scandal before the Daytona 500 that year, but he helped guide the team through the rocky waters of "Spingate" in the aftermath of the Richmond race in 2013. As it is, the talent drain in the aftermath of the scandal is reflected in the team's current winless season.

Ganassi stunned the CART world when he switched from Honda power to Toyota for the 2000 season and eventually won an IndyCar championship for Toyota. He has scored wins in the Rolex 24 at Daytona and Grand-Am championships under power from Lexus-badged engines built by Toyota. Currently under Chevy power in the Indy Racing league, Ganassi, like team owner Roger Penske, has mastered the art of racing for different manufacturers in different series.
 


With the exception of Michael Waltrip, a part-time broadcaster as well as team owner, the key principals in these scenarios are currently talking in generalities -- in part to keep a focus on this year's Chase. Where it all ends up is a matter of speculation beyond Kauffman's confirmed move.

Because of the high cost of competing in NASCAR's premier series, consolidation of some sort through alliances to get the benefits of multiple entries seems inevitable. And it's impossible for Toyota to get more than four entries into the Chase in the future if MWR folds and it doesn't strike a major deal elsewhere.

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