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 While analysts and sources close to the matter expect Puerto Rico
to pay the roughly $330 million in general obligation debt due on
Jan.1, nothing is certain. They said the tiny Caribbean island may
be more likely to default on its other debt.
The U.S. Commonwealth, suffering from a near decade-long recession
with a 45 percent poverty rate and a shrinking tax base due to
people leaving the island, first defaulted in August when it failed
to make the full payment on its Public Finance Corp (PFC) bonds.
Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla has argued that the island's debt,
totaling around $70 billion, is not payable and requires
restructuring. Puerto Rico has been negotiating with creditors to
try and persuade them to take a reduction.
One source with GO debt exposure said debtors usually advise
creditors ahead of time when they plan to default, and Puerto Rico
had not indicated a default to GO creditors.
 Daniel Hanson, an analyst at Height Securities who follows Puerto
Rico, said in a Tuesday report that GO bonds have a "very high"
probability of being paid, but that the island will likely skip some
$35 million in Infrastructure Finance Authority (PRIFA) bonds, $1.4
million in PFC bonds, as well as possibly $91 million on bonds at
its buildings authority (PBA).
Another creditor-side source told Reuters on Tuesday that some
creditors were preparing possible lawsuits in the event of default,
but it was unclear how quickly they could be filed.
The timing of Puerto Rico's decision is unclear because the January
1 due date is a holiday. An announcement could come as soon as this
week, or be delayed until next Monday, Jan. 4.
Skipping a payment on the GO bonds could be a jolt to the municipal
bond market as GOs are viewed as safe. Puerto Rico's GO bonds are
backed by the good faith, credit and taxing power of the
commonwealth and its bond documents state that such debt will
constitute a first claim on available commonwealth resources.
Garcia Padilla on Dec. 1 granted the U.S. territory power to take
revenues from public agencies such as the highways agency HTA, PRIFA
and its convention center authority in order to pay GO debt and
maintain essential services.
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Default on any debt is likely to lead to litigation, but there is a
"very high degree of certainty" that a missed payment on GO bonds
would trigger lawsuits, Moody's Senior Credit Officer Ted Hampton
said last week.
Puerto Rico's plight has gained increasing attention in Washington
D.C., where the U.S. Treasury has been pushing Congress to allow the
island to restructure its debts under U.S. bankruptcy law. The House
is expected to hold a Jan. 5 hearing on Puerto Rico's financial
problems.
A GO default could be the most significant since Detroit defaulted
on GO bonds in 2013. John Miller, co-head of fixed income for Nuveen
Asset Management, which holds around $300 million in par value of
insured Puerto Rican paper, said last week that not paying GO debt
would be "very negative" for Puerto Rico bonds.
Island officials have given clear warnings of defaults. Garcia
Padilla said last week that it is "very, very unlikely" there will
be no default on debt due Jan. 1 and has also said the island has
"no money".
Melba Acosta, president of the island's Government Development Bank
(GDB) was quoted in local media saying the island is expected to
default on a Jan. 1 payment on its PRIFA bonds.
(Reporting by Megan Davies in New York; additional reporting by Nick
Brown in San Juan; Editing by Diane Craft)
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