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 Using a simple set of around a dozen questions about such things as
the number of cars you own or whether you tend to be a slow or,
better, a fast walker, the predictor can give a five-year death risk
calculation for any Briton aged between 40 and 70 years old.
The researchers who developed the calculator with Sense About
Science, a UK charity that works to help people make sense of
scientific and medical claims, say it could improve health awareness
and also in future be used by family doctors to identify high-risk
potential patients.
"The score can be measured online in a brief questionnaire, without
any need for lab tests or physical examination," said Andrea Ganna
from Sweden's Karolinska Institute, who co-led the work and
published it in The Lancet medical journal.
To create the score, Ganna and his colleague Erik Ingelsson from
Sweden's Uppsala University, analysed data collected for the UK
Biobank between 2006 and 2010 from nearly half a million adults aged
between 40 and 70.
They used a statistical survival model to assess the probability
that 655 specific demographic, lifestyle and health measurements
could predict death from any cause, and from six specific causes, in
men and women separately.
Ganna cautioned, however, that the score "has a degree of
uncertainty and shouldn't be seen as a deterministic prediction".
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For most people, a high risk of dying in the next five years can be
reduced by taking more exercise, quitting smoking and eating a
healthier diet, he said.
As well as the five-year death risk, the calculator -- available at
a dedicated interactive website http://www.ubble.co.uk -- gives
users a so-called "Ubble age".
Those whose "Ubble age" is significantly higher than their actual
age should see this as a health warning, the researchers said, and
think hard about changing their lifestyle.
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