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 And many politicians are wary of a voter backlash if gasoline
prices go up just as they open the door to exports.
However, Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Republican head of her
chamber's energy committee, is expected to introduce a bill as soon
as Tuesday night that would lift the ban Congress passed in 1975
after the Arab oil embargo created fears of global shortages.
While there is plenty of resistance in Congress against lifting the
ban, the prospects for a reversal could improve under some of the
following conditions:
THE US OIL PRICE DROPS FURTHER
Mainly because of the U.S. oil glut, domestic crude producers now
get about $6 a barrel less than companies in many other countries.
If the glut grows and deepens the discount of West Texas
Intermediate futures in New York to London's Brent oil futures by
between $10 and $15 a barrel or more, it would create a dislocation
politicians would find hard to ignore.
 "I am not sure that policy makers will act in advance of that
problem developing," said Jason Bordoff, a former energy advisor to
President Barack Obama, now a founding director at Columbia
University's Center on Global Energy Policy.
"In response to that kind of market dislocation, people will feel
very pressured to act."
A RELATED HOUSE BILL PICKS UP STEAM
A bill introduced in February by Representative Joe Barton, a Texas
Republican, has slowly gained backing and now has 26 co-sponsors in
the 435 member chamber, including four Democrats. It could see a
surge in support if more Representatives from non-energy producing
states sign on.
One lawmaker to watch is Michigan's Fred Upton, the chairman of the
energy committee in the House. He is open to moving legislation on
crude exports "when the time is ripe and it has the bipartisan
support to succeed," his spokeswoman said on Tuesday.
In the Senate, Murkowski's efforts got a boost last month when
Senator John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, which is not a big
oil producer, declared support for lifting the ban. Murkowski still
needs five Democrats in addition to North Dakota Senator Heidi
Heitkamp, who supports the bill, to get the 60 votes likely
required.
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CONSUMER GROUPS GET ON BOARD
A string of reports from think tanks have concluded that allowing
U.S. oil exports would cut the cost of gasoline because it would
lower the price of Brent on which those prices are based.
If a major shipping company, or industry groups representing
airlines or cruise ships, come out in favor of lifting the ban, it
could sway policymakers into joining the fight.
OBAMA APPROVES EXPORTS TO MEXICO
The administration is expected to allow a swap of crude oil to
Mexico, giving the country the same right to import U.S. oil as
Canada. The move - a test drive for lifting the entire ban - could
make politicians comfortable with the idea that exports will not
harm profits at refineries or cause a spike in gas pump prices.
A GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS
A foreign policy crisis involving a large oil producer could push
Washington into allowing more American crude to reach global markets
to tame any price rises. Bob McNally, president of energy
consultancy the Rapidan Group, said the crisis scenario is the most
likely way the ban would be lifted before a new president takes
office.
Otherwise, said McNally, the route to lifting the ban will depend on
electing a president in 2016 who supports oil exports and will
encourage Congress to do so.
Columbia's Bordoff said a crisis could lend support, but steady
pressure on Washington from Asia and Europe to relax the ban, even
if there is no crisis, could also play a role.
(Reporting by Timothy Gardner.; Editing by Bruce Wallace and Andre
Grenon)
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