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 There is, however, a high risk that bird flu strains could spread
within the American continent, mainly Mexico, the head of the
Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said, calling
on farmers and authorities to boost biosecurity measures.
No new U.S. cases of the disease were confirmed on Tuesday, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture said in a daily notice. Iowa, the nation's
top egg-producing state, and Minnesota, the top turkey producer,
found eight new poultry flocks that are thought to be infected.
The U.S. poultry industry is confronting its biggest recorded
outbreak of bird flu, which has led to the death or culling of more
than 40 million birds after confirmation on commercial farms and
backyard flocks in 16 U.S. states and in Canada.
The disease, which manifests in several physical symptoms and a
sharp drop in egg production, has led to a sharp rise in egg prices,
forcing food producers to look for alternatives.
"I think it cannot worsen in the United States," OIE Director
General Bernard Vallat told Reuters in an interview.
"Given the scale of the damage and the pressure on farmers I believe
they will quickly protect themselves more efficiently. There are
huge economic stakes here."
He said he expected the epidemic to be under control by September.
The U.S. chief veterinary officer John Clifford was more optimistic,
putting the end of the epidemic at July, taking account of a recent
decline in the number of cases and warmer weather that lowers
transmission.
"Summertime is coming. It gets hot in these places in July and
because the heat and the sunlight reduces the virus present in the
environment we will stop seeing cases," Clifford said on the
sidelines of OIE's general assembly in Paris.
WORSE CASE SCENARIO
The U.S government reported 34 outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N2
and H5N8 bird flu on farms or backyards between April 27 and May 8,
leading to the death or culling of 9.9 million birds, the OIE
website showed.
However, cases have waned in the past two weeks, Clifford said. "We
believe the worst is behind us, which doesn't mean that we still
won't see additional cases but we know we see a decline in cases,"
he said.
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The bird flu epidemic in the United States was particularly severe
because farmers were not prepared, and because of the size of its
farms, Vallat said.
Clifford stressed U.S. authorities were preparing the poultry
industry for any return of bird flu later in the year.
"We can't predict for sure whether it will be back in the fall in
the wild bird population as they start migrating south but it's very
likely that it could be present again so we need to prepare
ourselves for the worse case scenario for next year."
While the U.S. threat is seen fading, Vallat, who estimated that the
U.S. bird flu toll could reach 50 million, highlighted risks to
other countries in the region, particularly Mexico, and urged a
stronger approach to biosecurity.
This included early detection and surveillance and simple steps such
as protecting feed from wild birds and disinfecting everything
entering farms including people, trucks and veterinarians, he said.
Outbreaks of a different strain of bird flu virus, H7N3, in Mexico
in 2012 and 2013 led to the death of nearly 20 million birds over
two years, data showed.
(Additional reporting by Tom Polansek in Chicago; Editing by
Veronica Brown, David Evans and Chris Reese)
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