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 Over the three decades or so of the modern 'emerging markets'
securities industry, periodic shocks and sharp drawdowns have
typically been followed by big returns for those bold enough to snap
up cheap assets during the darkest moments.
But this episode - seeded by fears of tighter U.S. credit and a
rising U.S. dollar alongside a commodity collapse accompanying a
secular slowdown of China's economic growth - has a different
feeling and there's been a slow bleed for more than two years
already.
According to world's most closely watched monitor of capital flows
to emerging markets, the Institute of International Finance, the
developing world will record net capital outflows this year for the
first time since 1988.
Funds fear that instead of widespread defaults and currency
collapses, the crisis this time is more measured and slower moving,
and many of the over-investment and over-borrowing problems may take
many painful years to correct themselves.
The market rally of the past week - sparked by expectations of
another delay to U.S. rate hikes as jobs growth slows - is therefore
seen fizzling out again soon.
"At several points in the last year-and-half I thought we were
turning a corner and of course we haven't. We see these blips of out
performance, then it continues on its downward trend," said Jose
Morales, CIO of Mirae Asset Global Investments.
The reason, according to Morales, is the close correlation of
emerging equities with the growth premium developing countries enjoy
over richer peers. This premium, UBS data shows, has shrunk to the
narrowest since 1999.
"I look at forecasts, not just for GDP (gross domestic product)
growth but also earnings growth in emerging markets. I will start to
believe that perhaps we are at a turning point when I see those
downgrades stabilize," Morales said. "It always goes back to
growth."
One big problem is the uncertain outlook for China, on which
emerging markets' fortunes mostly hinge. Growth is very likely less
than the official 7 percent while a $1.1 trillion buildup in company
debt has raised fears of a financial crisis.
Emerging exports too are declining year-on-year at the sharpest rate
since 2008-09, UBS data shows, a consequence both of China's
slowdown and fragile demand from the West.
All this has made emerging markets cheap. MSCI's emerging equity
benchmark is in its fifth year of underperformance versus developed
peers and its price discount to developed peers is the widest in at
least a decade. http://link.reuters.com/gup54w
Real exchange rates - measured against the currencies of trade
partners and adjusted for inflation - are below 10-year averages for
12 out of 23 markets shown in this graphic: http://link.reuters.com/vuf47v
NOT CHEAP ENOUGH
But "we don't want to be the ones to try and catch a falling knife,"
said Pierre-Alain Wavre, chairman of Pictet Wealth Management's
investment committee. "We think some of these countries are in a
vicious circle."
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Wavre named Brazil as a prime example: once booming at 7 percent a
year, the commodity-heavy economy is in recession and political
impasse is blocking reforms.
Most fund managers polled by Reuters agree with Wavre.
"We would consider an investment only once growth perspectives have
stabilized. Valuation is a long-term indicator but will not give
signals for the short term," said Nadege Dufosse, head of asset
allocation at asset manager Candriam Dufosse.
Similarly, a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch survey showed investors
holding a record 40 percent underweight on emerging stocks in
September, relative to global index weight.
A separate BAML poll of U.S. funds found over half had cut emerging
debt allocations in the past quarter.
About 40 percent said emerging markets recovery hinged on commodity
prices stabilizing. But over a third expected commodities to fall
another 10-20 percent in the coming year.
DEBT AND EARNINGS
At the heart of the crisis lie emerging market companies.
Slowing growth has pushed earnings-per-share 25 percent off 2011
peaks, the longest recession ever for MSCI's emerging index,
according to Morgan Stanley. Earnings recessions after 1998 and 2008
were more brutal but lasted only 18-24 months.
Private companies have also racked up a mountain of debt, estimated
by the IIF at $24 trillion. Of this $3.3 trillion is dollar
borrowing, double 2008 levels.
Most countries have the means to step in and bail out corporates,
but they can't afford to weaken their currencies for fear of causing
defaults among corporate dollar borrowers.Morgan Stanley analysts
said the process of unwinding leverage built over years has only
just started.
"We need cleaner balance sheets to get structurally constructive,"
they added.
(Additional reporting for Claire Milhench; Graphics by Vincent
Flasseur; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
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